Will green dreams pay off?

Pierce County will dedicate Chambers Bay Golf Course on June 23 with a mix of high expectations and financial pressure suitable for a course that one day hopes to host a major professional tournament.

If County Executive John Ladenburg is right, Chambers Bay will become a national showcase, rivaling Mount Rainier as a tourism draw and generating enough revenue to pay for itself and then some.

If he’s wrong, taxpayers are on the hook, and the county could be forced to sell parkland at the site that the golf course was designed to enhance.

Early signs are favorable. Northwest golf writers are raving about Chambers Bay, and the national press is paying attention. Already the waterfront course has booked more than 4,200 rounds, about a quarter of the rounds it needs to break even in its first six months.

But it could be years before Pierce County knows whether its $21 million investment in the championship-caliber course in University Place will pay off. And Chambers Bay’s opening comes as the golf industry struggles with an oversupply of courses.

Last year the number of courses nationwide declined significantly for the first time since World War II. Locally, some courses might be sold to make way for new homes.

Ladenburg, Chambers Bay’s chief advocate, dismisses those concerns. He said the course is in an elite class, and he’s confident it will be a resounding success.

“This is not your everyday golf course,” Ladenburg said in an interview last month.

The company hired to manage the course echoes Ladenburg’s confidence. Kemper-Sports believes Chambers Bay will become a national golf destination, like Bandon Dunes in Oregon or Pebble Beach in California.

But one golf expert is skeptical that Chambers Bay can succeed with greens fees as high as $100 for Pierce County residents and $150 for others. And some of the course’s supporters acknowledge success at Chambers Bay is not assured.

“It is a new model,” said John Bodenhamer, executive director of the Pacific Northwest Golf Association. “It’s never been tried up here. Will it be another Bandon Dunes? I sure hope so. I guess we’ll know in a few years.”

A LONG-TERM PLAN

If Chambers Bay succeeds, its fantastic setting will be one of the reasons.

Perched on a former gravel mine overlooking Puget Sound, the course offers fabulous views of the water and the Olympic Mountains.

The golf course is the centerpiece of the county’s 932-acre Chambers Creek Properties, which also includes the newly dedicated Soundview Trail. Next year the county will open two grassy parks on the site. Future amenities include a refurbished pier and access to two miles of beach.

The county’s 1997 plan for the property called for developing a golf course and other amenities over 50 years. But Ladenburg didn’t want to wait that long to open what he believes will become a premiere recreation destination.

He proposed building a top-flight course that would generate enough revenue to pay for itself and other features. Now the county executive expects most of the site to be developed in another 10 years.

It’s been a tough sell.

Early feasibility studies offered conflicting assessments, with one suggesting the course represented a “significant financial risk to Pierce County.” And the cost escalated from about $13.5 million for a 27-hole course to a final $20.7 million for 18 holes.

“It seemed to me like the target was constantly moving, and it was moving upward,” said former County Councilman Kevin Wimsett.

County Council members butted heads with Ladenburg over funding but ultimately approved his plan to borrow the $20.7 million and to pledge golf course, sewer and general fund revenue to repay the debt.

As a precaution, the council has stipulated that the county would lease or sell some property at Chambers Creek to repay the debt if golf revenue falls short. That would protect taxpayers and sewer ratepayers from getting stuck with the debt, but it could deprive them of some of the very property the golf course was intended to help develop.

Ladenburg says that will never happen. He contends the course will pay for itself and future development at Chambers Creek.

The project has a fine pedigree. The county hired acclaimed course designer Robert Trent Jones II to transform the gravel pit into a premiere golf destination. To operate Chambers Bay, the county picked KemperSports, which manages more than 70 courses nationwide, including Bandon Dunes.

Construction began in 2005.

GETTING GREAT REVIEWS

By all accounts, the result is impressive.

Western Washington golf writers have gushed about Chambers Bay. Two golfers on the Professional Golf Association tour, Ryan Moore of Puyallup and Michael Putnam of Tacoma, played it and praised it. National publications like Time magazine have visited.

So, too, have representatives of the United States Golf Association, which one day could bring a major tournament to Chambers Bay. In fact, the course was designed for such tournaments.

The “Scottish links-style” course features sandy terrain, waterfront views, shot-altering wind and just one tree. Golfers must walk the course, and will be able to use a cart only if they have a doctor’s note. Joe Wisocki of KemperSports, the general manager at Chambers Bay, said that maybe half a dozen courses in the country offer a similar golf experience.

Golfers will pay a premium for that experience. Pierce County residents will pay from $65 to $100, depending on the day and the season. Others will pay as much as $150.

Wisocki said Kemper’s studies show there are plenty of Pierce County residents willing to pay the price. And the course is counting on county residents for 65 percent of the rounds played this year.

County officials say Chambers Bay will be a financial success from the start.

The county projects the course will net $187,000 this year, assuming it books 16,900 rounds at an average fee of $103. The course had booked more than 4,200 rounds as of mid-May, a month before the June 23 opening.

But county officials say the impact will go beyond a balanced budget.

In 2004, the county estimated the golf course would pump $46 million into the economy over 10 years, including about $10 million from outside Pierce County. In addition, the county estimated the course would produce about $13.9 million in wages over 10 years for up to 50 jobs.

The City of University Place already is anticipating some of the benefits. It’s courting a major chain hotel for its 122 Degrees West development, partly to serve hundreds of out-of-town golfers.

The real payoff would come if Chambers Bay lures a major tournament.

Ladenburg said a tournament like the U.S. Open could pump tens of millions of dollars into the local economy. He believes such a tournament is a real possibility.

“It would be the biggest thing since the World’s Fair in Seattle,” Ladenburg said.

IS THE MARKET OVERBUILT?

But there is reason to wonder whether the course will be as successful as county officials hope.

For years, the golf industry has been in a slump. According to the National Golf Foundation, the number of golf rounds played nationally has declined in three of the last five years. Through the first three months of 2007, rounds played are off 4 percent from the year before.

Meanwhile, hundreds of new courses have been built nationwide in recent years. That means more choices for fewer golfers, and courses across the country are suffering.

Course closures are rising, and last year the total number of courses nationwide declined. Since the golf foundation began keeping records in 1931 it has recorded only two other significant declines: during the Great Depression and World War II.

“A lot of people are saying that, for the short term anyway, the market is overbuilt,” said Stephen Shmanske, an economist at California State University-East Bay and author of the book “Golfonomics,” a study of the industry.

Shmanske said the glut of courses affects premium courses as well as more affordable ones. He said some high-end courses have had to cut greens fees in recent years.

“I suspect that your new course is not going to meet their targets, either,” Shmanske said.

Bodenhamer, of the Pacific Northwest Golf Association, said an oversupply of courses has taken a toll in the Northwest and the South Sound.

“There’s a lot of competition,” he said. “Operators have found it challenging … to make it pencil out.”

Locally, the North Shore and Lipoma Firs golf courses could give way to houses in coming years due to the struggling industry and the skyrocketing value of land.

Still, Bodenhamer pronounced Chambers Bay “spectacular.” He hopes it will succeed.

“It will be a one-of-a-kind course,” Bodenhamer said. “Whether it’s successful in drawing to that (high-end) niche, we’ll see. I hope that it is.”

OPTIMISTIC ABOUT SUCCESS

County Council members also are hopeful – if cautious – about the course’s prospects.

“Will it generate a ton of money? Well, we’ll wait and see,” said Councilman Terry Lee, R-Gig Harbor. “But you can bet it will generate money.”

Councilman Calvin Goings, D-Puyallup, said he’s hopeful “that what the (county) executive promised will be realized.” Goings added that he’s “going to keep focused like a laser on the financing of the golf course.”

It might be several years before the county knows whether its investment in Chambers Bay has paid off. The course could be a hit the first year or two as people try it out. The trick will be to keep them coming back.

Ladenburg believes they will come back. He expects the course to become a Pierce County signature destination, like Mount Rainier.

Ideally, in 10 years, Ladenburg hopes Pierce County will be preparing to host the U.S. Open, and all the talk about whether the golf course was a good idea will be forgotten.

“I just hope in a decade people look at it and they’re proud of it,” Ladenburg said. “They’ll say, ‘I’m from Tacoma. That’s where Chambers Bay is.’”

Benchmarks for success

To meet its financial goals, Chambers Bay Golf Course is counting on golfers to play more than 30,000 rounds a year. Below are the rounds projected for the course in a 2005 financial report:

200716,900*

200832,000

200932,480

201032,967

201133,462

201233,964

*This is an updated figure submitted in the 2007 budget for six months of operation. Go to our Web site for previous coverage of the Chambers Creek project, including a video walking tour of the Soundview Trail and highlights from PGA pro Ryan Moore’s first round on the golf course.