Terror threat to U.S. looms large as ever

If Americans haven’t paid as much attention to Pakistan as they have to the struggles of U.S. troops in Iraq and Afghanistan, that’s going to change.

It turns out that the fearful, threatening presence of al-Qaida – and of Osama bin Laden himself – is alive and seemingly untouchable in remote, lawless parts of Pakistan – a nation that is supposedly a U.S. ally.

Worse yet, according to a draft national intelligence estimate, a largely rebuilt al-Qaida is working hard at preparing new terror strikes on American soil.

In other words, al-Qaida badly wants to inflict another Sept. 11 – and is or soon will be capable of it. The fact al-Qaida has not struck inside the U.S. in six years is little comfort.

It’s hard to imagine a more frightening picture of America’s vulnerability to terrorism than the one outlined in the intelligence estimate, which represents the consensus of all 16 U.S. intelligence agencies.

And it’s hard to imagine more convincing evidence that all the treasure and blood the U.S. has spent fighting in Iraq has not made Americans at home any safer from terrorism. The center of the al-Qaida threat, the report makes clear, is in Pakistan, where bin Laden and his core leadership enjoy safe haven.

The intelligence estimate says al-Qaida most likely is still pursuing chemical, biological and nuclear weapons and would use them if its operatives develop the capability to do so.

The report highlights the dilemma the Bush administration faces in Pakistan, which is nominally an American ally. Under President Pervez Musharraf, the Pakistani military has helped kill or capture some key al-Qaida figures. But Musharraf’s government also has granted near-autonomy to tribal leaders in remote Western Pakistan, where the government has little reach and al-Qaida moves easily.

Islamic extremists who challenge the government, such as those who held out in a nine-day siege of Islamabad’s Red Mosque, are a bigger concern for Musharraf and the military than the tribal warlords who control the rugged mountain areas near the Afghan border.

Unlike it did in Afghanistan against the Taliban, the U.S. can’t easily sweep into Pakistan to dislodge or destroy al-Qaida – not without risking a wider conflict in Pakistan as well.

The resurgence of al-Qaida will cast a long shadow on the political debate over the Bush administration’s course in Iraq. Whether the time is right for withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq is one question. Whether the war in Iraq has made America safer is another – and the answer to that one seems increasingly obvious.