I-985 is no solution to traffic congestion

It is billed as the “reduce traffic congestion initiative.” The name it deserves is the “backfire initiative.”

Because the closer you look at it, the more I-985 looks likely to increase traffic congestion.

A new analysis by the U.S. Department of Transportation raises serious questions about the measure’s real-world impact. It focuses on a central provision in I-985: ending high-occupancy vehicle requirements on HOV lanes except from 6 to 9 a.m., and from 3 to 6 p.m.

I-985 defines those six hours as the “peak hours” of heavy traffic. The problem: Traffic doesn’t doesn’t follow such a neat schedule. In a letter to the state Department of Transportation, federal transit and highway officials noted that on some Washington roads, “congestion begins as early as 5 a.m. and can last throughout the entire day until 7 or 8 p.m.”

Drive between Tacoma and Everett a few times during the work week, and you’ll discover how true this is. I-985’s time scheme was essentially plucked out of a hat – “set arbitrarily rather than based on actual performance,” as the feds put it.

One problem with the initiative is fiscal. The state receives millions of dollars from the U.S. Department of Transportation on condition that it operate the HOV lanes during genuine peak hours.

For purposes of funding, HOV lanes are basically defined in terms of how quickly buses and other multiple-passenger vehicles can move through them. Cram those vehicles in with the rest of traffic, and you no longer have an operating HOV lane. Federal funding will dry up accordingly.

But the major problem isn’t money; it’s the fact that everyone is likely to wind up going slower in the long run.

Much as some solo drivers may resent car pools and buses passing them in the HOV lanes, those vehicles are making life easier for the solo drivers – because they are carrying crowds of people who would otherwise be driving solo in the regular lanes.

Here’s how the feds sum up I-985’s probable results:

 • Commuters would lose their incentive to use car pools and transit during the crowded hours the initiative pretends are not crowded.

 • Some car-poolers would switch their travel to the measure’s 6-9 a.m. and 3-6 p.m. windows.

 • Other car-poolers would stop car-pooling altogether. So might some transit users.

Each of those consequences produces the same thing: more congestion.

We can’t remember any ballot measure so likely to deliver the exact opposite of what it promised. Traffic engineering is a complex science. I-985 is a simplistic initiative. It’s not going to deliver the goods.