Cuts to state government, including layoffs, are almost certain as Washington’s weakening economy promises to deepen the hole in the budget.
Officially, nothing has been decided. But Gov. Chris Gregoire won re-election with a pledge not to raise taxes, and the budget numbers have been going from bad to worse.
To keep doing what it’s doing, the state would need $34.5 billion over the next two years. The latest revenue estimate predicted it would have $3.2 billion less than that, just more than a 9 percent gap. That shortfall has been enough to provoke widespread fears among state employees of layoffs, and not without reason.
“I don’t think anything’s imminent … because we took the steps we did to make sure we had enough cushion for this biennium,” said Glenn Kuper, spokesman for Gregoire’s budget office. “Certainly as we build the budget for next biennium, that’s a very realistic possibility.”
The steps taken so far include a freeze on hiring, cuts to travel and contract budgets, and a 1 percent spending reduction across the board. With the predicted savings, plus the entire rainy-day reserve account, Gregoire figured she had bridged half the budget gap.
But Friday, the state’s economic forecast trimmed another $93 million from expectations. A tax revenue forecast is due Nov. 19, which will shed more light on the depths of likely cuts. Gregoire is required to release a debt-free budget proposal before Christmas.
Although Gregoire restated her no-more-taxes pledge after her victory, her fellow Democrats control the state House and the Senate. Senate Majority Leader Lisa Brown has notably said ending tax breaks for specific groups or industries is an option. But the conservative Washington Policy Center says the budget gap is too big to fill by closing a few tax exemptions.
Since Gregoire took office, the state budget has increased by one-third, noted Jason Mercier, an analyst with the center.
“We need to go back to where we would have been in 2005 if we hadn’t expanded the budget at that rate,” he said.
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