The state employment numbers look good, but keep the champagne on ice.
Nobody says it’s a trend.
Seasonally adjusted employment in Washington grew by 4,000 jobs in July compared with June, this after June marked a decrease of 8,000 jobs.
The unemployment rate statewide decreased in July to 9.1 percent from a revised June figure of 9.2 percent.
Nationwide, the unemployment rate has fallen from 9.5 to 9.4 percent.
“This is just a one-month picture. We need to put that in perspective,” said Dave Wallace, an economist with the state Employment Security Department, on Tuesday.
“It may be a while before we see a steadfast recovery. I think it’s too early to call it a trend,” he said.
“It’s interesting to look at, but we do need a little more information to say this is pointing in a certain direction,” said ESD spokeswoman Caitlin Cormier. “These are data points. They look attractive. You want to look at that picture over time.”
According to the data released Tuesday, between June and July the major sectors posting the largest gains were education and health services, up by 4,400 jobs; professional and business services, up 2,100; and government, ahead by 1,300.
The construction sector shed 3,200 jobs; financial services dropped 1,900; and manufacturing posted 100 jobs gone.
The state numbers are seasonally adjusted, meaning they account for seasonal fluctuations in employment – such as maintenance workers returning to schools in the fall, or construction workers being laid off in the winter. This creates data that are less volatile.
In the Tacoma-Pierce County area, where the figures are not seasonally adjusted, the unemployment rate fell from 9.7 percent in June to 9.1 percent in July.
The main factor in the local decline in unemployment “is that you’ve got discouraged workers in the work force who have dropped out, certainly for Pierce County. That’s what I’m using for an explanation,” said Paul Turek, ESD regional economist, on Tuesday.
“Over time, you want to see job creation,” he said. “When you’re trying to turn the corner, you might get one indicator that looks good and another that doesn’t. It makes it tough to see where you actually are. We’re getting a little bit of that now.”
Although the numbers may appear positive, Turek said, “what I’m trying not to do is read too much in. It’s always important not to read too much into one month.”
Elsewhere in the state, the unemployment rate in King County, not seasonally adjusted, fell from 8.8 percent in June to 8.5 percent in July. In Thurston County the rate dipped from 7.7 percent to 7.1 percent.
Clark and Cowlitz counties saw the largest unemployment rates in the state in July, at 13.7 percent and 12.9 percent respectively.
Where 14 of 43 statistically relevant regions in the state recorded double-digit unemployment numbers in June, only 10 hit the figure in July. By comparison, none reported unemployment above 8 percent in July 2008.
“The fact that we’re getting positive signals is beginning to indicate that the worst is over,” Turek said. “We’re not turning up yet, but we’re getting ready to. There’s a difference. Another way to say it is that things look to be bottoming out.”
It’s not that there’s good news to report, he said. “It’s that the bad news seems to be ending.”
C.R. Roberts: 253-597-8535
c.r.roberts@thenewstribune.com
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