An offseason that has seen the Seattle Mariners sign Ken Griffey Jr. and Jack Wilson will heat up considerably Friday, and not just because teams on that day can begin making offers to free agents other than their own.
While all teams have zeroed in on players they’d love to acquire in that pool, the Mariners and the 29 other big-league teams will start shopping from another list.
One that includes 536 minor league free agents.
Tony Blengino, an assistant to Mariners general manager Jack Zduriencik and the team’s resident sabermetrician, has been gearing up for Friday for weeks.
“I’ve got 15 pages of minor league free agents, and some will be significant major league players next year,” Blengino said. “There will be minor leaguers we sign who will play for us in Seattle next year.”
Sabermetrics is the study of baseball statistics. The word is derived from the acronym SABR, the Society for American Baseball Research.
Impact players? Perhaps not, but players who play key roles.
“Last year, we signed Chris Woodward and he played significant time for us because of injuries,” Blengino said.
Zduriencik agrees there will be minor league signings.
“There will be minor league free agents we sign because of need – maybe our Double-A team is thin at third base or the outfield, and always, you sign those guys with the hope that they can become big leaguers.
“Then there may be minor league free agents we sign with the idea of inviting them to spring training. On Friday, there will be a lot of talks, but it’s not like a horse race where – boom! – you’re off.
“There are guys we have our eyes on.”
Whether it’s major or minor league free agents, Zduriencik relies on more than his gut instincts. What he wants are opinions – from scouts, from the numbers, from people outside the organization – before making a decision.
“It gets down to opinions, and you’re always asking for them,” Zduriencik said. “Tony bases a lot of his on sabermetrics, Carmen Fausto (team director of professional scouting) may have seen the player, and the scouts assigned to various teams know those teams as well as their own.
“What do you see? What do the numbers say? At the end of the day, pieces of information will help evaluate what you have and what’s out there. The goal isn’t to add what you already have, it’s to get players that make you better.”
Blengino’s job is to insure that Zduriencik gets a detailed analysis of any player he’s interested in – and some he should be.
“You have to look over the list of free agents – major and minor leagues – and make sure you don’t miss someone, like Russell Branyan last year,” Blengino said. “As names come up in trade possibilities, we have the information available. It’s something we work on all season, not just the offseason.
“From the scouting reports, we grade out players in various areas and grade them out overall. With the analysis, we compare a player to his peers in certain skill sets. There’s a physical component, there are statistics, and there are financial parameters we give Jack.”
One example from a year ago: Franklin Gutierrez.
“Gutierrez was a center fielder playing right field,” Blengino said. “He had some offensive potential, and that’s what our analysis said. Now, when does it come together? That’s something you can’t predict, but with Franklin, we didn’t have to wait.
“Risk assessment is part of it. It’s not an exact science. Some of it is objective, some of it subjective.”
Among the reports available to Zduriencik are those on all 32 minor league free agents from his own farm system.
“You’d love to reach down and find the minor league player that surprises everyone,” Zduriencik said, “but the likelihood is you find guys who can make a contribution, not an impact. Guys like Chris Shelton, Chris Woodward last year.
“I’m a believer that intangibles are important to winning clubs. We’re always looking for someone.”
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