Legislative heavies hogged the spotlight during three months of budget wrangling in Olympia. As the session gives way to campaign season, all eyes will be on a different group of Democrats: those from swing districts.
Some helped their majority party raise taxes and cut programs to deal with a $2.8 billion budget shortfall. Others balked, or were protected by their party caucuses from taking tough votes.
They’ll find out Nov. 2 how well it played back home in their districts.
“Some of those guys took some pretty bad votes as far as what we think the district makeup is like,” said Kevin Carns, director of the House Republican Organizational Committee.
Throughout the session, Republicans have been recruiting candidates to take on potentially vulnerable incumbents.
Carns said the committee is targeting 10 districts as competitive, with a couple more possible. The Senate Republican Campaign Committee has eight targeted districts with strong challengers, director Brent Ludeman said.
Taking over both legislative majorities would require nearly perfect results in those districts and some help elsewhere. Republicans need to pick up seven seats to take over the Senate, where 25 votes command a majority, and 13 seats to reach a 50-vote majority in the House.
Democrats used their majorities this year to suspend tax barriers in voter-approved Initiative 960 and then muscle through $800 million in new taxes on service businesses such as lawyers and hairdressers, out-of-state firms such as banks and wholesalers, major-label beer, soda pop, candy, gum and bottled water.
Their large numbers allowed them to approve the tax measures without help from some of their more vulnerable members – not to mention over the opposition of every Republican.
Democrats from swing districts, especially first-term legislators, were more likely to vote no.
“It was difficult,” freshman Sen. Claudia Kauffman of Kent said shortly after voting against the Democrats’ final tax deal, “but everyone understands that we all have difficult districts.”
“I think I did what I believe my district wanted me to do.”
High-ranking legislators such as Senate Majority Floor Leader Tracey Eide of Federal Way and House Democratic Caucus Chairwoman Dawn Morrell of Puyallup took the risk of casting yes votes on taxes and the budget, despite their competitive districts.
Morrell twice voted against her caucus’s tax package before voting for the final deal. In the end, she said, it seemed unfair to ask for money in the budget to help seniors and people with disabilities and then oppose the money used to pay for it.
It was a tough decision, but not as tough as trying to distance herself at home from the Legislature’s work.
“It’s just not true to my character,” she said. “It’s really hard for me to go home and say ‘Oh, we did a terrible job,’ because I think we did a pretty good job.”
Even Democrats who voted against that final revenue package are not immune to ads accusing them of raising taxes. Some voted for a $1-per-pack cigarette tax increase, seen as more popular with voters. Others helped pass an operating budget that pays for programs with the money raised by the new taxes.
Just four Democrats voted against both tax measures and the budget measures, including Rep. Troy Kelley of Tacoma.
Of course, Democrats won’t be playing only defense. The House seat held by Rep. Dan Roach of Bonney Lake is up for grabs now that Roach is running for King County Council. And Democrats will be gunning for the Senate seat long held by Roach’s mother, Pam Roach, seeing her as vulnerable after well-publicized run-ins with staff that led Republicans to eject her from their caucus room this year.
But Democratic seats will be the ones in play in most Pierce and south King county districts, which are traditionally some of the more competitive in the state.
As many as 11 of the area’s Democratic lawmakers up for re-election this year could face a tough fight.
25TH DISTRICT
REP. DAWN MORRELL
Morrell, a nurse, took on new responsibilities in her fourth term to become caucus chairwoman, making her Pierce County’s highest-ranking House member.
Roll call: She voted against suspending I-960, but in favor of the final tax deal, the tobacco taxes and the operating budget.
Potential opponent: Republican challenger Hans Zeiger is an author and senior fellow at the conservative Virginia-based American Civil Rights Union. He said he’s disappointed in Morrell’s tax vote and that in visiting 3,000 homes so far in the campaign, “I’m hearing from a lot of people in our community who are concerned about the priorities of government.”
Republican Steve Vermillion is also seeking the seat, and Ron Morehouse, who took on Morrell in 2008 as a Republican, will run as a Democrat.
Swing voters: The district has two Democrats and one Republican in the Legislature.
26TH DISTRICT
REP. LARRY SEAQUIST AND SEN. DEREK KILMER
Seaquist, a retired U.S. Navy captain, is in his second House term. Kilmer, vice president of the Economic Development Board for Tacoma-Pierce County, is in his freshman Senate term after a term in the House.
Roll Call: Both voted against the I-960 suspension, the main tax package and operating budget. Both voted for tobacco taxes.
Kilmer said he worried that increased taxes could impede economic recovery. Seaquist complained his party didn’t make enough reforms to state government before raising taxes, but said his district’s voters know he didn’t support most tax increases. They “look at me as someone who has been working on these reform issues,” Seaquist said Friday.
Potential opponents: Doug Richards, a Republican battalion chief at South Kitsap Fire and Rescue, has challenged Seaquist. Kilmer faces a challenge from GOP real-estate broker Marty McClendon.
Swing voters: The suburban-rural district has legislators from both parties, including Republican Rep. Jan Angel.
28TH DISTRICT
REPS. TAMI GREEN AND TROY KELLEY
Green, a nurse in her third term, serves as assistant majority floor leader. Kelley is a business owner and Army reservist in his second term.
Roll Call: Green voted for all of the major tax and budget bills, while Kelley opposed them.
“I’ll be able to sleep at night with this budget,” Green said in the waning days of the session. Last year’s largely all-cuts budget kept her awake.
Potential opponents: Republicans are lining up to take on Green, including Brian Wurts, president of the Lakewood Police Independent Guild; Kent Keel of the University Place school board; and Paul Wagemann of the Clover Park School Board. Eric Kuester and Craig Gocha have also filed. Against Kelley, Republican lawyer Steve O’Ban is running.
Swing voters: The district has legislators from both parties, including Republican Sen. Mike Carrell.
30TH DISTRICT
SEN. TRACEY EIDE AND REP. MARK MILOSCIA
After three terms in the Senate, Eide, a business owner, has risen to become floor leader, a job that holds influence over the flow of legislation. Miloscia, a substitute teacher and former nonprofit official, is in his sixth term.
Roll Call: Eide voted for all of the major tax and budget bills. Miloscia backed the operating budget but voted against both major tax bills.
Potential opponents: Republican Tony Moore, president of the Federal Way school board, is running for Eide’s seat. Shawn Sullivan, a project manager for Sabey Corp., is running for Miloscia’s seat.
Swing voters: The district has legislators from both parties, including Republican Rep. Skip Priest. “Really, it’s up for grabs,” Sullivan said. “At the end of the day, it’s who’s going to work harder.”
31ST DISTRICT
REP. CHRISTOPHER HURST
Four-term House member Hurst is a former police detective.
Roll Call: Hurst voted against the main tax package and the tobacco taxes. He also voted against the final budget deal, although he supported an earlier version.
Potential opponents: Patrick Reed, a Republican, is program manager for the secretary of state’s office.
Swing voters: The rural district is represented by Hurst, a Democrat, and Republicans Pam Roach and Dan Roach.
47TH DISTRICT
SEN. CLAUDIA KAUFFMAN REPS. GEOFF SIMPSON AND PAT SULLIVAN
Kauffman is a freshman. Sullivan, a former Covington mayor, is in his third term, and Simpson, a firefighter, has served in the House since 2000.
Roll Call: Kauffman voted for the cigarette tax and the budget but not the main tax package. Sullivan, who helped negotiate the budget deal, voted for all three, though he ended up voting against the final version of the cigarette tax. Simpson opposed the budget and the final tax deal after voting for the tobacco taxes and earlier versions of the tax package.
Potential opponents: Republicans Nancy Wyatt, Auburn Area Chamber of Commerce president, and Mark Hargrove, a Boeing instructor pilot, are vying for the right to take on Simpson. Rodrigo Yanez is running for Sullivan’s seat.
Joe Fain, who is running for Kauffman’s seat, has served as chief of staff for King County Councilman Pete von Reichbauer. Fain said Democrats like Kauffman would be held accountable for their budget votes. “If you’re voting yes on spending that requires new taxes, and then say, ‘But I voted no on taxes,’ that doesn’t pass the sniff test,” he said.
Swing voters: The district in south King County is represented by all Democrats, but Republican Dino Rossi narrowly edged out Gov. Chris Gregoire there in 2008.
Jordan Schrader: 360-786-1826
jordan.schrader@thenewstribune.com
blog.thenewstribune.com/politics
JOIN THE DISCUSSION | Register here
We welcome comments. Please keep them civil, short and to the point. ALL CAPS, spam, obscene, profane, abusive and off topic comments will be deleted. Repeat offenders will be blocked. Thanks for taking part — and abiding by these simple rules. A thorough explanation of rules of conduct can be found in our Terms of Service. If you have any questions, including why your comment may not be showing immediately after you submit it, be sure to visit the commenting FAQ.