As I’m sure you’ve heard, the Seattle Mariners own the second overall pick in today’s amateur player draft.
There’s no certainties in any draft, and in a sport as nuanced as baseball, it’s especially difficult to project the future stars from the busts. It’s possible general manager Jack Zduriencik and his scouting staff could strike out on their interpretation of the next-to-best thing.
That’s what happened to the Pirates in 1987. Minutes after the Mariners began the draft by selecting a high school outfielder from Moeller High School in Cincinnati (Ken Griffey Jr.), Pittsburgh chose Florida high school outfielder Mark Merchant.
Seen as a comprehensive talent with power and speed – 48 stolen bases in 49 attempts during his high school years – Merchant represented a first-round philosophical change for the Bucs, who before 1987 had been successful drafting such college players as Arkansas’ Jeff King and Arizona State’s Barry Bonds.
Merchant not only never made it to the majors, he only briefly advanced to Triple-A. Yet on draft day, 24 years ago, Merchant and Griffey were considered a coin flip.
How scary is that for fans of a team scheduled to pick No. 2?
Here’s some consolation: After Merchant failed to deliver on his potential, every second overall choice between 1988 and 2005 got to the big leagues.
That’s 19-for-19 and counting, because the jury is still out on those who were drafted after 2005.
If you study the 45-year history of prospects taken second in the June draft, you’ll find that only six of them were denied the un-promised land. In other words, scouts have batted 39-of-45.
Not that anybody associated with the 1973 Phillies was gloating when No. 3 pick Robin Yount and No. 4 pick Dave Winfield were inducted into the Hall of Fame.
Philadelphia’s selection that summer? University of Colorado catcher John Stearns, who went on to be a four-time All-Star with the Mets.
At least Stearns enjoyed a major league career, which is more than can be said of former Padres prospect Jay Franklin. The Virginia high school pitcher – the second selection of 1971 draft – was taken ahead of Hall of Famers Jim Rice (No. 15), George Brett (No. 29) and Mike Schmidt (No. 30).
In many cases, the No. 2 choice has gone on to trump the No. 1 choice.
Reggie Jackson, from the 1966 draft, is the first and most glaring example. The Athletics tabbed “Mr. October” out of Arizona State after the Mets settled on California high school catcher Steve Chilcott. (Awarded a $75,000 bonus that he invested in real estate, Chilcott retired after seven minor league seasons.)
Jeff Burroughs was a No. 1 selection of the Washington Senators in 1969, and ended up hitting 240 home runs (including 10 with the Mariners in 1981).
But Burroughs was a pedestrian talent compared to the No. 2 selection that year, Astros pitcher J.R. Richard. (Before he suffered a stroke, Richard was a fireballing force.
Earlier this season, when asked to identify the pitcher who most reminds him of Mariners rookie Michael Pineda, manager Eric Wedge didn’t hesitate. “J.R. Richard,” he said.)
The career of San Francisco first baseman Will Clark, the second pick in 1985, exceeded that of Brewers catcher B.J. Surhoff – and Surhoff was a four-time All-Star who retired with 2,326 hits.
Old Dominion right-handed pitcher Justin Verlander went second in the 2004 draft to Detroit, where the 2006 rookie of the year and three-time All-Star has flourished. The guy selected before Verlander?
That would be San Diego high school shortstop Matt Bush. Chosen by the Padres largely because they believed him more likely to sign than the more touted Scott Boras clients on the board – Stephen Drew and Jered Weaver – Bush missed his Arizona Fall League debut after getting into a scrape at a bar.
Things didn’t go well for Bush on the field, either. The shortstop is now attempting to make it to the majors as a Double-A reliever in the Rays’ organization.
As for the Mariners, they can only hope the second pick of 2011 works out as well as it did in 1984, when the Mets’ selection of Pennsylvania high school outfielder Shawn Abner left them with University of Maine pitcher Billy Swift.
Abner hit .227 for three teams, while Swift became a rescued-from-the-bullpen ace who would lead his league in ERA in 1992 and win 21 games in 1993.
Unfortunately for the Mariners, Swift did all that in San Francisco, after he was sent to the Giants as part of a one-sided trade for underachieving, overweight slugger Kevin Mitchell.
The deal was a stinker all the way around, but Swift’s emergence as force in the NL had to gratify the Seattle scouts who recommended him out of college. Another No. 2 versus No. 1 choice that could pay off for the Mariners is Dustin Ackley, the Tacoma Rainiers second baseman whose gradual track to the bigs should be complete by the end of the month.
San Diego State pitcher Stephen Strasburg was everybody’s idea of a first pick in 2009, and when it became obvious the Nationals would beat the Mariners to the punch, there was a lot of public whining – uh, guilty, your honor – about the cruelty of finishing the previous season with the second-worst record, and thus the second-best draft choice.
Strasburg was as advertised, striking out 14, with no walks, in an unforgettable debut a year ago this week.
But it’s grueling on an arm to throw 98-mph pitches that approach the hitter with a late and violent break, and by July Strasburg was sidelined with an inflamed right elbow. A month later, he was designated for Tommy John surgery.
Strasburg won’t pitch this year, and he may not pitch in the big leagues next year.
Faced with the same quandary in 2011 – Strasburg or Ackley? – I suspect more than one general manager would take Ackley. Investing in a healthy everyday player is just a better business decision than gambling on a pitcher with a surgically repaired arm.
Today, for the second time in three years, the Mariners will draft No. 2. It’ll be fine. Trust me. The general manager is a lifelong scout, and he takes more pride in identifying prospects than anything else he does.
Besides, Mark Merchant is 42. He’s off the board.
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