Sometime around 10 tonight, the conclusion of the Mariners’ season will find melancholy spectators at Safeco Field reflecting on the twists and turns of a long-ago summer gutted by a 17-game losing streak.
Sometime around, oh, 10:01, everybody’s attention will have shifted to next year, and the 2011 baseball season will seem as passé as pet rocks, 8-track tape players and lava lamps.
There is no scientific way I can prove this, but I suspect the player most discussed among Mariners fans this season didn’t wear a Mariners uniform. Even when the team was contending, the possibility of Milwaukee Brewers slugger (and soon-to-be free agent) Prince Fielder relocating to Seattle in 2012 dominated the local baseball conversation.
Since the midsummer crash, the radio sports-talk shows that still acknowledge the Mariners have adopted an all-Fielder, all-the-time format.
Why this fascination with Prince instead of the king of all free agents, St. Louis’ Albert Pujols? For one, Pujols is a right-handed hitter whose list of ideal destinations leans more toward Chicago’s Wrigley Field than Safeco Field, so tough on right-handed batters that it neutralized the power of Adrian Beltre. It’s not impossible to lure right-handed hitters to Seattle as free agents; it’s just impossible to lure Albert Pujols.
Furthermore, Pujols has no connection with the Mariners front office.
Fielder knows general manager Jack Zduriencik, who oversaw the Brewers’ scouting department when the Florida high school phenom was taken as the seventh overall selection in the 2002 draft. Zduriencik’s recent appointment of Ted Simmons to his braintrust connected more dots: Simmons worked as a Brewers bench coach in 2008.
There’s a lot to like about the prospect of Fielder taking his talent to the Puget Sound area. He’s a left-handed power hitter capable of creating more of a buzz taking batting practice at Safeco Field than the Mariners create during the ninth-inning rally of a tie game. And yet Fielder, with 38 homers and 120 RBI this season, isn’t an all-or-nothing free swinger. He’ll take a walk if there’s nothing to swing at – his career on-base percentage is .389 – but he’s content to make solid contact if there’s nothing in his wheelhouse.
Which brings us to the $200 million question: Would the Mariners be wise to sign Prince Fielder to a contract that’ll require them to pay him at least $20 million over 10 years?
I say no.
Fielder’s agent, Scott Boras, will tout the durability of his 27-year old client, a vegetarian who rarely misses a game and has never suffered a serious injury. Still, Fielder’s playing weight is listed at 275 pounds, and can you think of the last 275-pound hitter to achieve a productive season after the age of 30? I can’t think of the first.
Boras likely will demand a contract that won’t expire until Fielder is 37. The idea of paying $20 million a season to a 27-year-old Prince is one thing. What’s ludicrous is the idea of paying $20 million a season to a 34-year-old Prince, dealing with the knee (or back, or hip, or ankle) problems a 275-pound ballplayer is bound to encounter.
If the Mariners are able to benefit from seven healthy seasons out of Fielder, the $200 million investment might be worth it. Just remember: When he’s 34 and fragile, the club still will owe him $60 million.
Another red flag is Fielder’s position. He’ll want to play first base on a team that has holes almost everywhere except, well, first base.
Mike Carp has revealed himself to be an everyday player in the big leagues – first base fits him fine – and it’s too early to give up on Justin Smoak, who has fought through a season of untimely injuries and profound grief.
While I’m not opposed to the premise of the Mariners spending $200 million over the winter – hey, it’s not my signature on the checks – a free-agent acquisition is a bet. It makes sense to hedge the bet.
Two Minnesota Twins outfielders – Mike Cuddyer and Jason Kubel – soon will be pursuing the free-agent market. Kubel, a 29-year-old left-handed hitter with plus-20 home-run capability, likely will command $10 million a season. Cuddyer, 32, hits from the right side, but he mashes, and likely will command $10 million a season as well.
Here’s the hook: Neither will demand a 10-year contract. Heck, neither will demand a five-year contract. For the price of an elite slugger, the Mariners could get two proven power hitters, at a fraction of the risk a 10-year deal entails with Fielder .
Zduriencik also can get creative. His farm system is stockpiled with young pitchers who could be knocking at the big-league door as early as next spring.
The Mariners need bats, but they’ve got arms to deal: Still another reason to resist investing $200 million in a guy who may be a prince but is no fielder.
I realize how urgent it is for the Mariners to make a splash over the winter, and Fielder qualifies as the ultimate splash.
At 275 pounds, he might be the largest vegetarian to roam the earth since those dinosaurs unrelated to Tyrannosaurus rex.
You know what happened to them.
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