Despite official urgings, I cast ballot late, not early

This is all new to me, this vote-by-mail stuff.

As one of the last poll-voting holdouts, I always voted the same time on what we used to call “Election Day.”

So now I’m wrestling with the question of when to vote despite the urging of election officials to vote early (though not often). My ballot arrived Oct. 22 and sat on the table for two weeks. I finally voted on Sunday, mailed it Monday and still feel guilty for voting so early.

But now I come to discover that some voters fill out their ballots the first day. For them, Election Day 2011 has come and gone, leaving them free to begin focusing on Election 2012 along with the news media and all the Republican presidential candidates. It seems premature to me (both the voting and the GOP presidential primary), but who am I to judge?

According to statistics kept by the elections folks at the Pierce County Auditor’s Office, a little more than 9 percent of ballots were received in the first five days after most ballots arrived in mailboxes. In the following five days, another 13 percent were received.

Given that Pierce County Auditor Julie Anderson said she expects about a 50 percent turnout this election, that means a little more than half of the vote still remained to be cast by the final weekend before today’s deadline. (I should note that the statistics record only when the ballot was received, so we can estimate when it was mailed by the voter but not when they filled it out.)

Other counties show similar patterns – an early batch, then a steady but not overwhelming flow and then the majority at the end. Based on the 2009 election, the last election like this with local offices and initiatives, more than half of ballots will be mailed over the last weekend or later, with around 40 percent arriving back at the county after Election Day.

“I talk to normal people – not you and me – about when they vote,” said Alex Hays, one of a handful of folks locally who run campaigns for a living (but one of many who do not consider me “normal”). “I know the plural of anecdote is not ‘data,’ but I think a substantial number of people wait until the end,” he said.

Most campaigns invest in a daily update from the auditor on returned ballots. Hays says that from that, campaigns know which voters have already returned their ballots and are no longer up for grabs. They then remove those names from his mailing lists, phone lists and robocall lists.

“The money you spend on taking them out is close to zero,” he said. “But the money you save is substantial.”

It makes sense to conclude that the type of person who votes early has pretty set views and is less susceptible to persuasion by a campaign. Campaigns can concentrate efforts and the campaign’s money on those who haven’t mailed ballots and may still be deciding.

I don’t know if I am especially influenced by most campaigns. Most mail and TV only makes me more cynical. But I do want to watch the whole campaign before I vote. Stuff happens after ballots are mailed – like up in Snohomish County where a story broke Friday about a state patrol investigation into the incumbent county executive.

But there is a consequence to holding on to a ballot until the end. As Hays points out, once your ballot is received at the elections center, many campaigns will stop sending you mail and stop calling you. Many might consider that all the incentive they need to vote early and mail early.

After years of pleading to keep poll voting as an option, I must say there is a benefit to mail voting that I hadn’t noticed until taking part. Before, I could wear my “I Voted” sticker for only one day. But based on the invitation in the voters pamphlet, I now get to “Wear it all month.”

Just be careful not to run it through the wash.

Peter Callaghan: 253-597-8657
peter.callaghan@thenewstribune.com
blog.thenewstribune.com/politics
Twitter: @CallaghanPeter