Redistricting maps help lawmakers

Washington’s eight U.S. House members seeking re-election in 2012 all found something nice in their stockings this week.

The state Redistricting Commission unveiled maps that insulate the four Democrats and four Republicans from having to worry much about being unseated by the opposing party.

Their own parties could be a different story.

Primary challenges now become a possibility for incumbents who have cultivated a moderate image, including Tacoma Democrat Adam Smith and Auburn Republican Dave Reichert.

The threat could push centrists into the arms of their liberal or conservative bases as their once-mixed districts turn a deeper shade of red or blue.

“A Congress member or legislator’s voting record is really as much dependent on the district as it is the legislator’s own druthers,” said Democrat Adam Kline, a liberal state senator from Seattle, reflecting on the redrawing of south and central Seattle voters into Smith’s district. “Lets face it: (Smith) has represented a more conservative district until now. I think there would be a genuine request from voters … to say, ‘Are you prepared to take a more progressive stance?’

“Rep. Smith is a little more progressive than folks give him credit for,” Kline said.

The bipartisan commission plans to work all weekend to meet a deadline of Sunday to finish its work, which is hung up over a separate question of state legislative districts.

On Congress, there is general consensus. The commissioners propose creating two competitive districts without incumbents and a 9th district in which ethnic minorities make up the majority.

MORE COMFORTABLE FIT

The working plan would end the 9th district in east Tacoma, where Smith lives, and place much of the Pierce County suburbs he represents today into a new open 10th district.

A Republican would find it nearly impossible to win over the voters in Smith’s new district. For example, those voters chose Sen. Patty Murray over Republican challenger Dino Rossi by a whopping 63-37 percent margin last year. Those in Smith’s current 9th district also chose Murray but by a smaller 53-47 margin.

Meanwhile, under the same plan, Reichert’s 8th district would retreat from the Eastside suburbs of King County and extend over the Cascades into more conservative turf. It would stretch as far west as Sammamish and Eatonville.

Rossi beat Murray in that area in 2010 by a 55-45 margin, compared with 51-49 in Reichert’s current 8th district.

Reichert “is going to have to really shift gears in this next (term), if he gets through 2012,” said state Rep. Cary Condotta, a conservative East Wenatchee Republican. Condotta is critical of Reichert’s support for efforts to combat climate change and other votes in concert with environmentalists.

“He’s not going to be able to take those positions,” Condotta said of Reichert. “He’s been pretty much middle-of-the-road. I don’t think that’s going to fly over here.”

But he predicted Reichert would “feel more comfortable with being a little more Republican.”

GOP political consultant Alex Hays agreed Reichert’s voting pattern might become more conservative but said the former King County sheriff stands to benefit from the district’s more Republican orientation.

“It is natural for representatives to represent their constituents,” said Hays, who runs the Mainstream Republicans group, “and for Reichert, when he represented Bellevue, the Eastside and a lot of suburban Republicans, he voted like a suburban Republican.”

PRAGMATIC APPROACH

Smith and Reichert said voters of all stripes will like their independent styles – what Smith calls a “pragmatic approach” and what Reichert describes as a “cop-mode” that involves “fact finding.”

“They want their elected officials to represent them, not a party, not an interest group,” said Smith, who is part of the centrist New Democrats coalition.

In his congressional service so far, Smith has opposed deficit spending and developed expertise on defense – an issue that rings loudly with his voters around Joint Base Lewis-McChord but perhaps not so much if his district moves north.

Reichert, on vacation this weekend across the mountains where his son lives and where the congressman has a home, said he planned to talk to county Republican chairmen in central Washington.

“We’ve sat down and met with tea party folks – very supportive,” Reichert said. “We’ve got a great relationship with our base, and I look to expand that.”

But Reichert also held out the possibility of challenging U.S. Sen. Maria Cantwell in 2012.

MINORITY VOTE

Smith faces a unique situation: a congressional district where, for the first time in Washington, people of color make up just a tick over 50 percent of the population.

But he’s used to having a diverse district. State Rep. Sharon Tomiko Santos, a Democrat who represents Seattle, Tukwila and Renton, said Smith has been sensitive to her constituents’ needs.

Still, she said, some voters would like to elect a person of color to Congress for the first time. Santos said that could happen in some other district, such as the 1st.

Lobbyist and public-relations consultant George Griffin said Smith’s future could depend on whether he and his staff understand how much his district has changed with the influx of minorities.

“If not, I think there will be some folks who want to see some changes,” said Griffin, who is black and from Seattle.

But he said many are willing to give Smith the benefit of the doubt.

“I think people are fair enough to say, ‘Let’s give him the opportunity’ and not just think ‘Oh, because he’s a white guy he can’t do it,’” Griffin said. “I think it’s a wait and see.”

Jordan Schrader: 360-786-1826 jordan.schrader@thenews tribune.com blog.thenewstribune.com/politics Twitter: @Jordan_Schrader