I predict that politics will be a hot topic in 2012, along with jobs, the economy and health care.
Beyond that, the future is a blurry haze to me.
Such uncertainty didn't discourage some local residents from complying with my request for their predictions for the coming year. If their visions get your psychic juices flowing, email me your own 2012 forecast for a future column.
Now, strap yourself in for a quick trip to the future:
- Michael Falter, program director, Pickford Film Center: 1. Apple will create new eyeglasses for people who watch movies on iPhones that will make it seem like they are in a beautiful new movie theater like Pickford Film Center.
2. Doctors will begin predicting that the texting generation will need thumb replacements by 2030 - most will opt to transplant their own digitus primus (great toe), which will reveal a whole new market for glove manufacturers.
3. The summer box office will be dominated by "Saw 13," "Rocky 11," "The Ghost of Harry Potter" and the return of Dirty Harry in "Mr. Callahan Needs a Doctor."
4. Netflix will begin offering people the chance to watch their own life unfold as it happens via a new service, "Life Steaming."
- Todd Donovan, political science professor, Western Washington University: Short term: Romney beats all expectations in Iowa, wins huge in New Hampshire, and the GOP nomination is over in about a week. Only question is who his running mate will be (I predict it won't be Sarah Palin ... going out on a limb there).
Obama will be re-elected if GDP growth stays over 2 percent per quarter. Lower growth, Mitt might make it.
Romney will be accused of running one of the nastiest campaigns in modern history, because he will (through surrogates). In other words, a normal election.
Romney will move to the center, be accused of more flip-flopping, all that. The Democrats will run ads showing that he speaks French, is rich and send jobs to China. A GOP John Kerry. Obama wins Washington by at least 5 percent.
Democrats might lose seats in the U.S. Senate; defending too much. Maybe they come out with 51 plus seats (including Vermont Independent Bernie Saunders). Maybe it ends up 50/50.
Democrats gain seats in the U.S. House, but not enough to take it back (I was wrong on that in 2010).
In Washington, Jay Inslee versus Rob McKenna.... Republicans' best chance (for governor) in generations. Lay of the land right now, McKenna looks like he wins. While the Democrats retain control of the Legislature, it will be close and costly, and nowhere as negative as the presidential contest.
Maria Cantwell (Democratic U.S. senator from Washington) gets re-elected.
Legal pot will be on the ballot. Polls well now, but I think it will lose.
Tim Eyman will think of something to get on the ballot. He always does.
- Ken Oplinger, president, Bellingham/Whatcom Chamber of Commerce & Industry: The city and county will recommit to Medic One and resolve their differences, that the city and port will complete a mutually agreeable master plan for the waterfront, and that unemployment will drop below 7 percent.
- Larry Thompson, executive director, Whatcom Alliance for Healthcare Access: In 2012, the cost of employer-sponsored health insurance locally will continue to increase in the 6 percent to 9 percent per-person range on average. Smaller companies will see even larger increases. This will result in further steep increases in co-insurance and deductibles for employees.
Medicare cost increases per person began to moderate to the 2 percent to 3 percent range in 2011, much lower than commercial or employer-sponsored changes. This is likely to continue for the next several years, depending on changes at the federal level. Overall, the cost news for Medicare enrollees will be generally favorable and will reflect these structural changes playing out from changes in federal policy.
In 2012, financial access to medical care will continue to sharply deteriorate. The percentage of people in Whatcom County who are uninsured increased from around 9.5 percent to over 12 percent from 2008 to 2010, largely as a by-product of the recession. State budget pressures will further erode access in 2012.
Look for elimination of the Basic Health Plan and Disability Lifeline Programs in the next legislative sessions.
The existing trend toward higher commercial co-pays and deductibles has dampened access to care. Close to half of the persons on local charity-care plans now have some type of insurance -albeit very high deductible health plans. In 2012, middle-class working-age residents will continue to be pinched by unaffordable costs of medical care, resulting in deferred visits and deferred care, especially preventive care such as mammograms, colonoscopies and dental exams.
In summary, while the loss of coverage due to loss of employment will slow, reductions in state programs and rising costs of commercial insurance will drive a worsening trend.
Local interests, through WAHA, are working hard to organize more effective and efficient health care to deal with rising costs and reduced access. Prediction: by late 2012, local providers will have organized an Accountable Care Organization, which will begin to moderate cost increases.
- Wes Herman, owner, The Woods Coffee: Local businesses will continue to grow as more people understand the benefits of keeping money in the community by supporting these businesses. We have some really great local businesses that should be supported. In turn, more local people will be hired and we will continue to see unemployment come down.
- Alice Clark, executive director, Pickford Film Center: 1. Pickford Film Center patrons will be able to enjoy a glass of wine or beer while watching a movie.
2. More people will create outdoor cinemas in their backyards during the summer using sheets and small projectors.
3. Someone new from Bellingham will become famous in Hollywood. We will all claim them as ours and be very proud.
4. People will still want to go on actual (not virtual) dates and will continue to go to the movies as a means to do so. They will discover front row seats at PFC are good for cuddling.
5. More people will be making movies and most will not fully understand the concept of editing.
- Dave Finet, executive director, Opportunity Council: On the downside: As the economy slowly recovers and unemployment benefits run out, we will continue to see increased demand from local citizens for basic needs: food, shelter, clothing, utility bill assistance, child care and employment opportunities.
Earlier this year, we surveyed our walk-in clients and discovered nearly half of those coming to the Opportunity Council asking for help have never before needed our services. We see this trend continuing in 2012.
Unemployment and underemployment will continue to impact society and our community; we will continue to face the issue of a lack of skilled workers for some jobs and available jobs for unskilled workers.
The criminal justice system will continue to be a major burden on our community's resources as tax revenues remain low and the percentage of resources spent on the criminal justice system becomes higher.
On the upside: People will become more aware of the need to address issues of poverty right here in our community and understand we cannot rely as much on state and federal programs; people will step up and contribute more to local service providers that support the basic needs of family, friends and neighbors.
Legislators will invest in the long-term sustainability of our society and support education at the level needed to produce the skilled workers we need for a vibrant community.
The Whatcom Early Learning Alliance, Opportunity Council, school districts and child care providers will continue to help kids get off to a good start in life by developing strategies and systems that support early-learning programs and align prekindergarten through third-grade curriculum.
Whatcom County, the city of Bellingham, the Whatcom Homeless Service Center and local nonprofit agencies will continue to develop strategies that address the needs of people who are homeless and work toward the goal of reducing homelessness by 50 percent by 2015.
Local citizens will have a better understanding of the real cost of homelessness on our criminal justice and health care systems, and realize that addressing mental health issues through the criminal justice system is not a good use of public dollars.
- Jack Louws, Whatcom County executive-elect: Whatcom County and the city of Bellingham will work together on issues of mutual importance, finding common sense solutions to some ongoing challenges. I am looking forward to working with Mayor Linville as we both start in our new elected positions.
— Nancy Canyon, astrologer: As Pluto continues to move through Capricorn throughout 2012, its power of transformation continues breaking down structures that no longer work. Financial and government systems will fail or undergo change. And so will our personal structures: relationships that aren’t working, jobs we’ve outgrown, health issues (Capricorn rules the skeleton) will resolve or dissolve.
With Pluto’s powerful influence, resistance is futile. Let go and make the necessary changes. Uranus and Pluto interact this year. The 99 percent aren’t going away. Uranus is the planet of quick change, so expect the unexpected. Take Back Wall Street will reorganize with a workable structure. Riots will increase. Change will happen around the people’s concerns.
Uranus in Aries will keep us on our toes. The solution to staying centered: cut back on doing too much. Aries initiating freedom-loving energy, mixed together with quick-change Uranus, will produce more unrest, within the self and collectively.
A wise person once said to me, “Know when to retreat.” This is especially good advice when dealing with Mars — Ares, the Greek god of war. Pick you battles wisely.
Neptune moves into Pisces in April. Cleaning and protecting our waters will become paramount. And as inventive Uranus joins Neptune, God of the sea, the result: a new process to glean electrical power from water and perhaps we’ll see the beginning healing of Earth’s waters.
Neptune in Pisces will also bring extremes: flooding and water scarcity. On a personal level, we will experience the resurgence of the spiritual quest, seeking a higher meaning for our lives via inner visioning, guided meditation, and spiritual leadership. Our predilection toward excess and addiction will increase. Meditation will become mandatory.
Increased solar flares will challenge our computers and our communications systems as electromagnetic energy hits Earth’s atmosphere. Go to spaceweather.com to sign up for regular emails alerting you as to when solar storms will occur.
With the increase in solar storms and the axis of the Earth shifting, physical changes will increase this year and in the years to come. Be sure to watch the night sky for aurora borealis.
And finally, I predict more love, companionship, and mutual aid. We will work together to heal our Earth and ourselves. Together we will invent workable solutions within our own communities to current financial and physical challenges. We are learning to open our hearts and to work together. We are becoming a global community one neighborhood at a time.
FORECAST THE FUTURE
If you have a 2012 prediction you'd like to share in an upcoming column, email it to dean.kahn@bellinghamherald.com. Deadline: Monday, Jan. 9.
JOIN THE DISCUSSION | Register here
We welcome comments. Please keep them civil, short and to the point. ALL CAPS, spam, obscene, profane, abusive and off topic comments will be deleted. Repeat offenders will be blocked. Thanks for taking part — and abiding by these simple rules. A thorough explanation of rules of conduct can be found in our Terms of Service. If you have any questions, including why your comment may not be showing immediately after you submit it, be sure to visit the commenting FAQ.