The Washington Legislature kicks off a chaotic 60-day session battle Monday with a sense of urgency about fixing a $1.5 billion budget gap. But in many ways the 2012 legislative session is looking like a giant run-up to spring and fall elections.
In fact, Democratic leaders hope voters will undo much of their work.
“We’re going to put a budget out there,” Senate Majority Leader Lisa Brown of Spokane told reporters last week, “and I expect that in the end, we’ll also be asking the public to look at a revenue package, because I expect the budget we put out there, that is within our current revenues, will not be acceptable to the people of Washington state.”
Gov. Chris Gregoire wants a half-cent sales tax to avert deeper cuts to universities, K-12 public schools and safety-net programs for the poor and elderly. It could go on a ballot as soon as April.
A few other ways the election season will be on the Legislature’s collective mind are:
- An initiative to legalize and tax marijuana must be adopted by lawmakers or Initiative 502 goes straight to the Nov. 6 ballot.
- Lawmakers mulling how to pay for roads, ferries, buses and other transportation needs could ask voters in November for another gas-tax increase.
- Gregoire says she’ll sponsor a bill to extend legal recognition to same-sex marriages. If Democrats manage to pass it, the legislation is expected to draw a ballot challenge from religious conservatives who in 2009 tried to overturn a bill expanding domestic partner rights for same-sex couples.
- House Republican Leader Rep. Richard DeBolt of Chehalis said if Democrats put a tax plan on the ballot, he wants to see GOP-backed reforms alongside it, giving voters what he calls a choice. His suggestion: letting private card rooms install the video slot machines used by Indian tribes.
- Then there is professional initiative promoter Tim Eyman. On Friday, Eyman filed five initiatives including a proposal to restate a two-thirds super-majority requirement for tax increases passed in the Legislature.
It would be tempting for lawmakers to look past the session, believing that whatever they do either needs voter approval or is going to be subject to voter second-guessing.
“The session is real. We will be making some huge decisions that affect everybody in the state ... So the focus is the session. But everyone is going to represent their district the best they can ... Most are running for re-election as legislators,” said Sen. Karen Fraser, the Senate Democratic Caucus chairwoman from Thurston County. “Election years are always a little extra sensitive, you might say.”
All House members and half the Senate are up for re-election. They cannot raise money for their campaigns while the Legislature is in session.
But neither can Republican Attorney General Rob McKenna, whose race against Democratic U.S. Rep. Jay Inslee to replace Gregoire as governor is the state’s marquee campaign this election season. That fact hasn’t escaped Democrats’ notice, but whether it plays into the Legislature’s chances for an on-time adjournment remains to be seen.
GOP TO MAKE FIRST MOVE
If it feels like lawmakers just left Olympia, it’s because they did – right before the holidays, after a 17-day emergency budget session that ended with bipartisan agreement on closing a quarter of the then-$2 billion gap, using one-time shifts, booking new revenues and making cuts.
Republicans aim to be first out of the gate with a more comprehensive solution once lawmakers reconvene. Thurston County Rep. Gary Alexander, House Republicans’ lead budget negotiator, said he has been working since Christmas on a proposal for cutting spending that he hopes to present to negotiators on Monday.
Alexander’s plan would leave fewer people covered by the state’s safety net. But unlike Gregoire’s plan, he said, his proposal won’t release any inmates early, reduce supervision for those already out of prison, or cut school district funding that helps reduce the disparity created by differences in local levies. The Democratic governor calls for making those cuts but letting voters reinstate them with nearly $500 million in sales tax revenue.
Alexander says of his plan: “It will not require a new tax increase” – at least not a general tax increase. He doesn’t rule out eliminating some tax exemptions that aren’t working. DeBolt suggests a tax credit for wind energy as one that has run its course.
ELECTION CALENDAR COMPLICATES
Most Democrats want a tax package but are still trying to settle on what should be in it.
“We’re working through what our members are willing to support,” said House Speaker Frank Chopp, D-Seattle.
Democrats hold a 56-42 edge in the state House, but it is closer at 27-to-22 in the Senate, giving outsized power to moderate to conservative Democrats who aren’t sold on taxes or have demands to be met first.
“I think we’re a few votes short on revenue at this point” in the Senate, said budget chairman Ed Murray.
Senate budget writers, who were able to craft a bipartisan spending plan last year, likely will move in a bipartisan way for as long as they can – unless it is derailed by either debate over raising taxes or adopting reforms sought by moderate Democrats and Republicans.
The clock is ticking. Murray, a Seattle Democrat, said lawmakers might pass a revenue package shortly after the Feb. 16 revenue forecast and get it to voters in April or May.
But state elections co-director Katie Blinn said her office would need a decision by early February for an April 17 vote. As for a special May election, Blinn said it would be “very, very difficult if not impossible, because we’re going to be doing candidate filing during that time.”
There’s another problem with waiting until May or later: State agencies need lead time to notify businesses. Gregoire’s plan counts on the tax to start filling state coffers at the beginning of the fiscal year, on July 1. Every month higher tax collections are delayed beyond July, the deeper the budget hole becomes.
Brad Shannon: 360-753-1688
bshannon@theolympian.com
www.theolympian.com/politicsblog
Jordan Schrader: 360-786-1826
jordan.schrader@thenewstribune.com
blog.thenewstribune.com/politics
twitter.com/Jordan_Schrader
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