A winter that has been slow to show signs of the cool, wet La Niña season that was predicted is changing course, according to the National Weather Service.
Forecasters predict cooler weather, snow showers and a series of storms reaching Western Washington on Saturday over the long holiday weekend.
Snow was expected by late Saturday morning in the Puget Sound lowlands with snow accumulations over the weekend of an inch or less in South Sound and higher amounts likely north of Seattle, meteorologist Dennis D’Amico said Friday.
More widespread snow is possible Tuesday and Wednesday, he said.
The forecast keeps with La Niña, which reflects lower-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, conditions that typically deliver stormy winter weather.
Meteorologis Carl Cerniglia said the dryer- and warmer-than-normal early winter weather the region has experienced is not out of line with a La Niña winter.
“La Niña usually doesn’t come into play until the last week of December or the first week of January,” Cerniglia said.
In its latest forecast, the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is calling this year’s La Niña as weak to moderate through the winter and likely to dissipate between March and May.
The looming cold front fueled by Arctic air moving into the region will deliver some of the coldest air this winter and heavy mountain snows that will increase the potential for avalanches and make travel across the passes more difficult, according to the Weather Service.
It also will add to the snow that’s helped ski areas in the Cascades to stay in full operation this winter.
Even so, popular slopes recently have been getting beaten down with frequent use. Operators are looking forward to this weekend’s forecasted precipitation.
“It’s skinny,” said Chad West, a snowsports salesman at Sturtevant’s Ski Mart in Tacoma. “There’s rocks starting to pop up. But we’re still the envy of the rest of the country. They’re mountain-biking in Tahoe.”
Crystal Mountain reported a total snowfall of 169 inches at its summit so far this year with Friday’s depth of 62 inches at the summit and 41 inches at the base.
“It’s definitely slower than last year,” West said, “but we’re still not in bad shape. Remember last year, there was a drought in January and February. Then all of a sudden March came around and it hosed, and everybody thought of it as a great ski season.
“I’m hoping this year it starts sooner and stays heavy,” he said.
The arrival of more winter weather also should add to below-average levels of snowpack.
Snow-accumulation data supplied by the Natural Resources Conservation Service shows it stands at 72 percent of normal in South Puget Sound, 81 percent in central Puget Sound, 93 percent in north Puget Sound and 88 percent in the Olympic Mountains.
Because snowpack can continue to pile up at higher elevations well into early spring, the Western Washington river drainages still might receive the water they need for stream flows and water supplies, Cerniglia said.
“We got a lot of our snow in March and April last year,” he recalled.
Scott Pattee, water-supply specialist for the Natural Resources Conservation Service in Mount Vernon, agreed.
“Right now, we can still catch up,” Pattee said. “Even if we can start getting normal snowfall in the mountains the rest of the winter and early spring, we would finish in a non-drought condition.”
However, he added, there are some areas that could end the snow season in a deficit, including the Lower Columbia River, which is at 57 percent of normal snow pack, the Walla Walla area, at 55 percent, and the Lower Snake River, at 65 percent.
Staff writers Rob Carson and Stacia Glenn contributed to this report.
John Dodge: 360-754-5444
jdodge@theolympian.com
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