As the 2012 PGA Tour season teed off, golf fans wondered which Tiger Woods will show up when he plays at Pebble Beach next month.
Will he be the erratic player who has struggled recently with aches of the body and soul? Or perhaps, as his many hope, Tiger will again be the transformational athlete who ignited an explosion of money and media attention on the tour 15 years ago.
Sadly, no matter how Woods plays this year, the rapid growth he stimulated in the professional golf industry has slowed. In fact, the “Tiger Bubble,” has gone the way of other semi-irrational economic flurries of this century.
The Bubble didn’t pop on Nov. 27, 2009, when Tiger Woods wrecked his car.
The Tiger Bubble, a label Johnathan Mahler coined in The New York Times Magazine in 2010, got its first sizable puff on Aug. 25, 1996. That’s when the 20-year-old golfer won his third straight U.S. Amateur.
After Woods turned pro and won his first PGA Tour tournament in October 1996, the Bubble lifted off. Winning the 1997 Masters by 12 shots sent the Bubble into orbit.
The phenomenon drew money and attention to the tour. PGA Tour prize money tripled in an eight-year span, from $79.4 million to $239.6 million. Nine players had winnings of at least $1 million in 1996, but 77 earned that hefty sum in 2004. But growth has slowed since 2005.
TV ratings flattened in 2004. Consequently, the networks started losing money on their 2003-06 contracts.
Declining ratings depressed both advertising rates and the net TV revenue stream to the tour.
To fight the effects of the softening Bubble, the tour created the FedEx Cup Playoffs, which started in 2007.
All of this formed the backdrop for Tiger’s first prolonged absence after winning the 2008 U.S. Open on a broken leg and bum knee. His spotty play – from injuries, swing changes and scandal – added to the forces of the Great Recession.
Still, Tiger remains a powerful force in professional golf. TV ratings since 2008 confirm the long-standing supposition that more people watch PGA Tour events in which he plays than not.
But ratings also show viewers lose interest when Tiger isn’t in contention. A tie for 44th ain’t movin’ the needle.
On Sept. 1, 2011, commissioner Tim Finchem announced a new nine-year TV rights package. CBS Sports Chairman Sean McManus acknowledged Woods’ uncertain future, saying, “In our business plan, we did not assume any golfer was going to be as dominant as Tiger had been in the past.”
For his part, Tiger might be ready to pump some air into the tired old Bubble after he won his own invitational last month.
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