School enrollment surge eases in Pierce County

School enrollment numbers are leveling out in Pierce County’s largest suburban districts, slowing a trend that saw these districts explode with new housing and kids in the 1990s and early 2000s while urban Tacoma’s student population steadily declined.

Demographer Les Kendrick theorizes that the downturn in the economy has prompted more families to stay put in Pierce County’s largest school district instead of moving to a new house in the suburbs.

The result: The pace of enrollment decline in Tacoma schools has slowed in recent years.

Kendrick is a private consultant who crunches numbers on births, housing sales and Census counts to create enrollment forecasts for school districts in the region. He recently presented a report on Pierce County school enrollment trends to the Tacoma School Board.

“Tacoma’s changing trend is correlated with a slowdown in K-12 growth in both the Bethel and Puyallup School Districts,” Kendrick reported. “These districts have been the fastest-growing districts in the county for well over two decades, but both have seen declines in their enrollment and a sharp downturn in new home sales since 2007.”

School districts track enrollment for several reasons. Projections help them plan for future building and staff needs. And because each full-time equivalent student is worth thousands in state funding – $6,400 per student in the 2009-10 school year – districts keep a close eye on the headcount.

Puyallup Deputy Superintendent Debra Aungst said the economy has produced a range of effects.

“What we are seeing is that people are not turning over their homes as they have in the past,” she said. In other words, more students are entering Puyallup schools and staying in the district longer.

Aungst said some families are doubling up to save money – where there might have been one family with children in a home, now there are two. Nearby schools have to make room for new students who are living with friends or relatives.

“There are pockets (in the school district) where enrollment is increasing,” she said. “The pattern has been up a little, then down a little.”

In the Spanaway-based Bethel district, Kendrick’s data show numbers are still increasing, but not as rapidly as in past years.

Bethel Chief Financial Officer Harvey Erickson said the district is watching growth come back, especially at the elementary level where schools are feeling the effects of a “baby boomlet.”

Another factor affecting student counts in Bethel is the Pierce County Skills Center, a regional career training center in Frederickson.

The center, which opened in the fall of 2010, attracts high school students either full- or part-time from other Pierce County school districts, including Tacoma. About 236 students take classes at the center this year, Erickson said.

Finally, he said, the Frederickson and Graham areas are still growing. Two of Bethel’s newest elementary schools, Nelson and Frederickson, are located there.

Back in Puyallup, Aungst said Kendrick has given several projections that anticipate high, medium or low growth. She said the district is now budgeting based on the low-growth model, which predicts enrollment could drop by a few hundred students next year.

But even as school officials watch how the recession is changing enrollment patterns, most are looking forward to what happens when the economy turns around.

“When home building starts again,” Aungst said, “we will see rapid growth.”

That’s because in the Puyallup area, she said, “there is still lots of space for homes to be built, and properties to be platted.”

Debbie Cafazzo: 253-597-8635

debbie.cafazzo @thenewstribune.com