Here are three columns for the price of one about a top-two primary held the first week of August.
To the spinner go the spoils: It was more than a year ago that Washington’s political insiders decided that contested primaries are bad.
Only one feasible Democrat and one feasible Republican were allowed/encouraged to enter the race for governor. So what do they do with the uncontested primary? Use it for spin, of course.
On Election Day, we newsies received a memo from Rob McKenna’s campaign manager warning us not to be fooled by his rival’s spin. Then he did some spinning of his own.
“Rob McKenna’s gubernatorial campaign has long been focused on the November 6 general election,” wrote Randy Pepple. “The campaign for Congressman Jay Inslee has evidently been focused a bit more on the primary election, in hopes of generating momentum – even a false momentum at that...”
Pepple’s evidence was a five-week-old memo from Inslee’s campaign manager, Joby Shimomura, that warned supporters that Inslee might not do well in the primary. Even though he would spend a bunch of money on TV and on a get out the vote (GOTV) campaign prior to the primary, it was really aimed at November, she wrote.
“The best conceivable GOTV effort simply won’t increase turnout enough to put Jay in first place in the primary,” Shimomura wrote. She blamed a primary electorate that is more conservative than the general electorate.
Not so, said Pepple. The primary electorate is smaller but not more conservative, he said, and Inslee’s camp is just trying to lower expectations.
Of course it was: “History tells us the primary is an extremely steep hill and doesn’t determine the ultimate winner,” Shimomura wrote.
But Pepple was trying to lower expectations, too: “The McKenna campaign expects Attorney General McKenna to finish in the top two in tonight’s primary, and thus move on to the general election.”
Before we get too dizzy, two pieces of information: Seattle pollster Stuart Elway, now mostly non-partisan but with a background in Republican campaigns, thinks the primary electorate is more conservative – older, more established, more partisan.
And Inslee “won” the primary.
Incumbents waltz: This election was the first on-the-ground look at new congressional and legislative districts created in January by the bipartisan state Redistricting Commission. And it appears commissioners did their job very well, if their job was to protect the interests of the parties that appointed them.
Of the 10 congressional districts, only one appears competitive – the 1st, which lacked an incumbent to protect. In return for letting the Democratic commissioners create a safe seat in the new 10th District, Republicans were allowed to make surrounding districts more Republican and even give the GOP a fighting chance in the 6th District.
Here is how the primary treated incumbents – Rick Larson, 2nd District, 59.5 percent; Jaime Herrera Buetler, 3rd District, 55 percent; Doc Hastings, 4th District, 57 percent (another Republican took an additional 11 percent); Cathy McMorris-Rodgers, 5th District, 54 percent (another Republican took an additional 8 percent); Jim McDermott, 7th District, 69 percent; Dave Reichert, 8th District, 50.4 percent (two other Republicans took an additional 11 percent); Adam Smith, 9th District, 60.5 percent (another Democrat took an additional 7 percent).
In legislative races, there appear to be only a handful of competitive districts with most incumbents having an easy time.
Top two to the rescue: So if you have a batch of super-safe districts, do you let that sure-to-lose party nominate candidates who will offer only token opposition to the dominant party? Do you give voters a choice without a chance?
Or, as in the top two, do you sometimes let the general election become a more-competitive choice between members of the same party but who offer real differences?
Tacoma’s 27th, Spokane’s 3rd and Seattle’s 46th are overwhelmingly Democratic districts that have general-election runoffs between two Democrats. Eastern Washington’s 7th, 12th and 16th, as well as Southwest Washington’s 18th, are Republican districts that have runoffs between two Republicans.
The general election will usually be Republican v. Democrat runoffs. But top two offers a badly needed safety valve for safe districts.
peter.callaghan@thenewstribune.com 253-597-8657 blog.thenewstribune.com/politics @CallaghanPeter
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