NEW YORK — With Abercrombie & Fitch giving away 1,000 iPads and J.C. Penney offering $10 million of free haircuts, retailers are pulling out the stops to make sure they get a share of what may be the best back-to-school shopping season in a decade.
Back-to-school sales, second only to the end-of-year holiday shopping season, may rise 2.5 percent to a record $40.4 billion this year, as consumers replenish wardrobes with more disposable income and the number of students increases, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers.
Retailers, stinging from lackluster sales in the first half of the year, are tempting shoppers with promotions to distract them from anxiety tied to the U.S. economy, where the unemployment rate has been above 8 percent for more than three years. Kmart is providing free flu shots to loyalty members who spend at least $100, and Old Navy gave out backpacks and OfficeMax coupons to shoppers who spent $50 or more.
“The retailers are very aggressively going after foot traffic this year,” Penny McIntyre, president of Newell Rubbermaid’s consumer group, said in a telephone interview.
“With all of the nervousness around the economy, the retailers have very much focused on the back-to-school season and doing very innovative programs.”
Retailers could use a boost. While the Standard & Poor’s 500 Retailing Index is trading at about a 41 percent premium to the broader S&P 500, that’s down from a 51 percent premium in April after retailers posted their fourth straight month of same-store sales that topped analysts’ estimates.
It’s an important period for retailers, as the season is highly correlated to sales in the holiday period, Jennifer Davis, an analyst at Lazard Capital Markets in New York, wrote in a July 23 note.
The number of students enrolled in preschool through 12th grade will probably rise to a record 54.9 million this fall, up 159,000 from last year, and is projected to increase annually through 2020, according to the National Center for Education Statistics. This year’s figure includes 240,000 more public- school students in preschool to eighth grade, a group that tends to be a major driver of back-to-school sales.
The U.S. population has grown to an estimated 312.8 million as of Jan. 1, mainly from more births and fewer deaths, a 4 million increase from April 1, 2010, according to the Census Bureau.
Sales will increase at a slower pace than last year’s 3.5 percent gain, according to the ICSC.
U.S. students typically start school in August or at the beginning of September after two to three months of summer vacation. Most back-to-school sales fall in August and September.
Many parents who held back on spending last year will be more apt to restock wardrobes this season, the National Retail Federation said in a report last month.
The Washington-based group estimates a 22 percent increase in back-to-school shopping to $83.8 billion, the most in the survey’s 10-year history.
The NRF’s data includes all retail channels, while the ICSC tracks family clothing, shoes, electronics and books.
The NRF’s forecast may exaggerate potential spending because it measures consumer intentions, which can differ from actual sales, Deborah Weinswig, an analyst at Citigroup in New York, said in an Aug. 5 note.
JOIN THE DISCUSSION | Register here
We welcome comments. Please keep them civil, short and to the point. ALL CAPS, spam, obscene, profane, abusive and off topic comments will be deleted. Repeat offenders will be blocked. Thanks for taking part — and abiding by these simple rules. A thorough explanation of rules of conduct can be found in our Terms of Service. If you have any questions, including why your comment may not be showing immediately after you submit it, be sure to visit the commenting FAQ.