If misery loves company, as English naturalist and preacher John Ray claimed some 225 years ago, then 2008 and 2009 will become fast friends.

For all the economic misery 2008 hit us with, 2009 will pummel us with more of it before the bruises have a chance to heal.

At the beginning of 2008, I wrote two columns of predictions for the year – one from a pessimist’s perspective, the other from an optimist’s. I thought 2008 could go either way.

This year I need to write only one list of predictions. All bad. Why do I think so? Let’s look at nine reasons.

1. Federal economic stimulus package: President-elect Barack Obama provided a preview this week of his plan to get the U.S. economy moving in the right direction again: tax cuts so we working folk can have more money to spend, infusions of cash to lending institutions so we can borrow, grants to state and local governments for infrastructure construction projects to keep the engineers, laborers and suppliers working.

Good news? Maybe for the long-term recuperation of America but not necessarily for 2009.

In his announcement about his plan, Obama said he will phase it in over two years. If you think of our economy as a sick hospital patient, Dr. Obama has prescribed an intravenous drip rather than a jolt from the Automated External Defibrillator.

Furthermore, Obama – the candidate who preached hope – told reporters Monday, “The economy is very sick. The situation is getting worse.”

2. Jobs: Be thankful if you have one – and think about getting another if you can find one. Because more and more companies report they will cut wages, benefits and pension contributions, force unpaid furloughs and lay off more workers in 2009.

Two prominent economists – Carmen Reinhart from the University of Maryland and Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard – predict unemployment may hit 11 percent this year, according to a report Tuesday in the Daily Profit newsletter.

The Wall Street Journal says the hemorrhaging of jobs will reach only 8.1 percent.

Either way, the numbers of us filing for unemployment benefits continued to grow faster than expert economists predicted in December. America has more workers collecting unemployment checks today since 1982.

Even monster.com, the Web site that helps people get jobs, says, “2009 will not be kind to job seekers, no matter why they’re looking … (as) millions more Americans are likely to lose their jobs before the carnage stops.”

Expect roughly 1 in 10 of us who want to work won’t have jobs in 2009.

3. Personal bankruptcies: Just look at the trend. In 2007, 40 percent more of us filed for bankruptcy than in 2006. Then last year, that number jumped another 33 percent to 1.06 million, according to a report Tuesday by the American Bankruptcy Institute.

And 2008 didn’t really get bad until October. We have more debt to pay off than income. We already tapped the excess equity in our homes to buy stuff over the last decade.

No surprise then the institute’s executive director, Samuel Gerdano, issued this statement: “Consumers are under great financial stress, with no immediate end in sight. … We expect the upward spike in personal bankruptcies to continue in 2009.”

4. Housing: Home values have dropped more than 35 percent in some volatile markets in California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida. Home values in the greater Seattle and Portland markets fell by 10 percent – their first time in double digits – at last report.

When will it stop? I don’t know. But probably not in 2009.

Developers holding large inventories of unsold condominiums will face mounting debt, and more will shift to apartments.

If you want to sell a house, know this: The latest number of houses under a pending sales contract fell to a seven-year low.

For 2009, the housing market will treat kindly two categories of folks – investors looking to pick up deals cheap from struggling sellers and those of you with credit good enough to qualify for a loan to buy a home. You can find deals out there right now, and they should get better later in the year.

5. Consumer spending: Fewer Americans have jobs. More Americans will file for bankruptcy. Credit card companies have clamped down on our debt limits and raised our interest rates.

If we wanted to buy, buy, buy like we have in the past, we don’t have as much access to money. But the fact is we don’t want to spend.

Last week the U.S. Conference Board, which measures consumer confidence, reported our confidence level dropped to a record low – during Christmas of all seasons.

Expect it will drop more, which means more bad news, bankruptcies and closures for retailers large and small in 2009.

6. Manufacturing: If we don’t buy stuff, there’s no reason companies who make stuff should keep making it. Right?

A key index of the nation’s manufacturing activity fell to a 28-year low in December, according to a report released Friday.

The Institute for Supply Management, which tracks and publishes a manufacturing index for the U.S., reported its index fell to a 28-year low.

Want a glimmer of hope? You won’t hear one from the institute’s committee chairman Norbert Ore, who said, “The decline covers the full breadth of manufacturing industries, as none of the industries in the sector report growth at this time.”

This will translate to more job losses and temporary and permanent factory shutdowns in the manufacturing sector – until consumer spending rebounds to buy out the stockpile of inventories.

Don’t expect that to happen in 2009.

7. Port of Tacoma: Even our sputtering economic engine will cough and wheeze worse this year. Container volume dropped about 3.4 percent last year and will drop 6.4 percent more in 2009, according to estimates published in the Pierce County Economic Index.

8. Stock market: I still have my 401(k) in some stock funds, but I got out of investing in single stocks in 1984 after I lost $1,200 in a company that makes cushy, non-slip bathtubs for elderly bathers. I write that to say I’m not an expert on the stock market.

Apparently a lot of experts on the stock market aren’t really experts either.

I find it hard to imagine that the broader stock market, given the gloomy outlook surrounding other economic indicators, will fair better than the economy as a whole this year.

9. The U.S. economy: The New York Times ran a detailed economic forecast last week that showed a rift between professional and independent economists.

The professionals – those employed by investment banks, trade associations and big corporations – had optimistic outlooks for the economy in 2009 partly because they use forecasting models that presume the basic soundness of the U.S. economy. (I’m guessing that’s because their employers want you and I to invest our money with them.)

But the independent economists generally don’t share the rosy outlook. According to The Times, economist Nouriel Roubini at New York University, who called the 2008 market disaster correctly, wrote in a recent commentary on Bloomberg News that he foresees “a deep and protracted contraction lasting at least through the end of 2009.”

Even in 2010, he added, the recovery may be so weak “that it will feel terrible even if the recession is technically over.”

If you agree with that, as I do, then perhaps the best advice for surviving 2009 comes from that misery-loves-company English naturalist, John Ray, who once said, “Industry (read: hard work) is fortune’s right hand, and frugality its left.”

Dan Voelpel: 253-597-8785

dan.voelpel@thenewstribune.com