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Tough times in Los Angeles, too

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Published: 02/15/0912:05 am
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LOS ANGELES – From corner diners to elegant eateries, restaurants in Southern California are shrinking portions, slashing wine prices, cutting workers’ hours and reducing staff.

Some chain restaurants and fast-food purveyors are shutting unprofitable outlets, and many large dinner-house chains are reporting some of the largest drops in same-store sales – an important measure of a retail company’s financial health – in many years.

After the stock market closed Thursday, Southern California chains Cheesecake Factory Inc. and California Pizza Kitchen Inc. both reported plunging same-store sales and profits.

“It is a very tough environment out there,” said Richard Rosenfield, co-chief executive of California Pizza Kitchen.

Not long ago, accountant John Rubi of Aliso Viejo would join his work buddies for lunch at a Chili’s Grill & Bar on Monday, Daphne’s Greek Cafe on Tuesday and maybe an Asian eatery later in the week. After work, Rubi would take his girlfriend to dinner at Mama D’s Italian in Manhattan Beach and spend $70 to $100, depending on the wine.

No more.

In 2008, Rubi lost his job in the auto lending division of an Orange County financial institution and now works for a different company in a lower-paid accounting position.

“I eat at home more. I pack my lunch. I cut out Starbucks, and when I do go to a Burger King or McDonald’s I get the 99-cent burger,” he said.

Parsimonious consumers are why Ruby Tuesday, Chili’s and even Starbucks and Pinkberry are closing restaurants. Experts see more ahead.

“When you look at what some of these brands are doing to stay profitable, closing money-losing stores is going to be the next shoe to drop,” said Brian Moore, a restaurant industry analyst with Wedbush Morgan Securities in Los Angeles.

In January, ARG Enterprises Inc., the Los Altos owner of 69 Black Angus Steakhouse restaurants, filed for protection from its creditors in U.S. bankruptcy court and said it would seek a buyer.

Other franchisees of major chains also have filed for bankruptcy and more failures are expected.

“There is going to be a shake-out in this industry,” Rosenfield said. “It is going to get worse before it gets better.”

In 2009, restaurant traffic will fall by at least 1 percent and the casual dining segment – which includes California Pizza Kitchen, Chili’s and P.F. Chang’s China Bistro chains – could have its worse year in several decades, said Bonnie Riggs, a restaurant industry analyst with NPD Group in Chicago.

Cheesecake Factory Inc. said its revenue dropped 1.5 percent to $400 million in its fourth quarter ending Dec. 30, 2008, compared with the same period in 2007. Same-store sales decreased 7.1 percent. The company’s profits plunged 47 percent to $7.1 million. Shares of the Calabasas Hills company fell about 7 percent to around $9 in after-market trading.

California Pizza Kitchen Inc. said its revenues decreased 0.7 percent to $161.8 million in its fourth quarter ending Dec. 28. Same-store sales dropped 7.2 percent. California Pizza Kitchen lost $5.3 million in the quarter, compared with a profit of $3.5 million the same period in 2007. Shares of the Los Angeles chain were unchanged in after-market trading after rising 23 cents to $10.98 earlier Thursday.

People are eating out less, and when they do visit a restaurant they’re taking a minimalist approach. Restaurant data show that in recent months, the trends have accelerated. Consumers are ordering entrees but skipping appetizers and desserts, Riggs said.

Some surveys show that fewer people are ordering drinks and alcoholic beverages with meals. Many are trading down, substituting chicken for steaks or other expensive meals.

Others are choosing fast-food establishments, taking advantage of the $5 foot-long sandwich specials at Subway or the Jack-in-the-Box “Jumbo Deal” offer of a Jumbo Jack, two tacos and a small order of fries for $2.99.

“People are looking for more calories per dollar,” said Harry Balzer, also a NPD Group analyst.

That’s the way accountant Rubi is operating.

Dinner out with his girlfriend is far less frequent, and when they do go out, the check rarely tops $25. Rubi is on the lookout for promotions and special deals such as the free meal Denny’s advertised during the Super Bowl broadcast. Rubi and a friend visited the chain the Tuesday after the big game to eat a free Grand Slam breakfast.

Patrick Robbers, a Christian minister who lives near downtown Los Angeles, still takes his family of four to the Olive Garden and Red Lobster “because they have good deals,” but has cut “more expensive culinary” restaurants from his budget.

To be sure, companies are still opening restaurants. In the last few months, about a dozen eateries opened in downtown Los Angeles – including eight at the L.A. Live entertainment center. But the overall number of restaurants in the U.S. is declining slightly and stands at about 575,000, according to NPD Group.

Brinker International Inc., the Dallas owner of the Chili’s, On the Border and Little Italy Favorites at Maggiano’s chains, is bracing for a rough year, Douglas Brooks, the company’s chief executive, warned investors during a recent conference call.

“Brinker and the entire restaurant industry remain challenged by a highly competitive environment and an uncertain economy,” Brooks said.

The company is closing nearly three dozen underperforming locations, and in 2008 sold its Romano’s Macaroni Grill division to focus on the three other brands. Even excluding Macaroni Grill, Brinker’s comparable-restaurant sales fell 4.5 percent in its second quarter ending Dec. 24.

Denny’s Corp. of Spartanburg, S.C., said same-store sales at company-owned and franchised restaurants dropped a combined 6.1 percent for the fourth quarter ending Dec. 31. Guest counts fell by a greater 7.5 percent.

Even fast-food chains aren’t immune. Carpinteria-based CKE Restaurants Inc. said same-store sales at Carl’s Jr. fell 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter ending Jan. 26, compared with a 1.4 percent gain in the prior-year quarter.

“A decline in consumer spending, combined with our competitors’ deep discounting strategies, has impacted sales. … We have declined to engage in such deep discounting to maintain our premium-quality food positioning and our profitability,” said Andrew Puzder, CKE’s chief executive.

Even when the economy starts to improve, it isn’t clear how quickly consumers will give up penny-pinching habits.

“It wouldn’t be enjoyable to go out and spend $100 on a meal,” said Rubi, “because I would be worrying about the money.

 

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