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Buy low in 1932, and sell way high in 2008

THE NEWS TRIBUNE
Ask the Fool: If I had put $1 in the market after the crash of 1929, how much would it be worth today? – Jim Gargotta, via e-mail.

A: Not everyone realizes it, but the crash of 1929 occurred over several months, not hours.

The Dow Jones industrial average peaked in early September 1929, at 381. It then slid down to 199 in mid-November, before rising again to 294 five months later, in 1930. (In October 1929, it slid more than 11 percentage points on two successive days.) From there it began a long descent, falling to 41 in July 1932.

With the Dow recently around 9,000, it’s up some 220-fold since the low of 41. That’s enough to turn your $1 into $220.

Ask the Fool: If I’ve made multiple purchases of a stock over time, how can I figure out my annual return? – M.W., Norwich, Conn.

A: What you want is the “internal rate of return.” If you invest $1,000 and it grows to $2,000 in one year, your holdings advanced 100 percent. (Congrats!) But if you invest $1,000 and then add $500 midyear, and then end the year with $2,000, your holdings didn’t appreciate by 100 percent. Part of that gain is simply from the midyear cash infusion.

Calculating an internal rate of return can be complicated. One shortcut is to plug your numbers into a spreadsheet on your computer and to use its IRR function to do the math for you. Another possibility is to enter your portfolio into an online portfolio tracker that calculates IRR.

My dumbest investment: My biggest blunder was several years ago, when I’d bought 100 shares of Wal-Mart. Shortly thereafter, my broker went to work for a different company. My new broker advised me to sell Wal-Mart and buy shares of Cisco Systems, for $22 per share. When it hit $30, he advised me to sell, which I did.

After looking at the value of these two stocks today, I kick myself. Needless to say, I no longer have this broker. – James K., Cedar Hill, Mo.

The Fool responds: A good way to make some big bucks is to stay invested in great and growing companies for many years.

Wal-Mart shares have risen in value about fivefold since you bought them, and Cisco shares have risen more than 10-fold.

Your Cisco story isn’t uncommon – many people sell their stock as soon as they hit a target price (representing, for example, perhaps a 10 percent or 20 percent gain). That’s profitable, but you can miss out on many more gains if the company is still thriving.

Foolish trivia: I was born 15 years ago as a printed financial newsletter sold by two brothers to friends and relatives. A year later I debuted online and became quite popular.

I’m on a mission to improve people’s lives, offering superior investment ideas. I produce or have produced scores of online articles weekly, along with video commentaries, a radio show, a weekly newspaper feature, more than a dozen published books and several investing newsletters.

My discussion boards are vast and busy, and my CAPS service at caps.fool.com rates thousands of stocks for free.

I throw parties on April 1. Who am I?

Answer to last week’s trivia: Founded in 1982 and based in San Jose, Calif,. I’m a top global software company, raking in $3 billion annually and employing some 7,300 employees worldwide.

I have something in common with sun-dried, unburned bricks of clay and straw. One of my products evokes gymnastics, while another is another term for low-energy nuclear reactions, and a third is a hit song by Gary Wright.

More than 500 million devices equipped with my Flash technology have been sold. Many of my offerings focus on print and Web publishing, as well as digital imaging. I went public in 1986. Who am I?

Answer: Adobe.

The Motley Fool take: It was a sunny day for solar power when Congress bailed out Wall Street. The final bill included gifts for many industries, including the renewal of investment tax credits for solar power for eight more years.

While the future for the solar industry seems bright, the tax credits might provide little immediate relief.

Hapoalim Securities analyst Gordon Johnson points out that 50 percent to 70 percent of solar projects are financed by debt, and that the credit situation in the country hasn’t improved to any extent, even with the massive bailout and capital injections the government has made. Thus, there’s expected to be little lending available to finance solar projects, at least over the short term.

The eight-year ITC extension is important for unlocking the value inherent in the solar industry, but investors would be wise to use caution when deciding whether to invest in solar companies right now.

There’s a developing consensus that the U.S. can become a storehouse of demand for solar power, and the ITC is just one component furthering it. Yet with the country’s credit woes still uncertain, lending criteria tightening and supply issues that need to be worked out, what appear to be cheap valuations today might seem dear by next year. And that’s a cloud that shouldn’t pass over your portfolio.

The Motley Fool is written by Tom and David Gardner for Universal Press Syndicate. Reach the Gardners at fool@fool.com, or by regular mail to Motley Fool, PO Box 19529, Alexandria, VA 22320-0529.


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