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Will you need a parka for New Year's Eve?

MIKE ARCHBOLD; The News Tribune
What kind of weather can Tacoma’s First Night revelers expect tonight for New Year’s Eve celebrations?

Relatively calm, at least for tonight, say forecasters.

“It might be wet so have a bumbershoot ready,” Brent Bower, a National Weather Service hydrologist in Seattle, said today.

All bets are off for Thursday, said Ted Buehner, the weather warning coordinator for the Seattle Weather Service office.

Another winter weather system is coming from the Pacific Ocean, bringing rain, high winds, snow in the mountains and high coastal surf to parts of Western Washington and northwest Oregon.

The avalanche danger, already high in the Cascades, Olympics and throughout much of the mountains in the West, could go to extremes Thursday, said Mark Moore of the Northwest Weather and Avalanche Center.

The snow level rising to 6,000 feet will bring rain to an already unstable snowpack, he said, resulting in the certainty of human-caused avalanches as well as the possibility of larger natural snow slides, Moore said.

The key to Thursday’s and Thursday night’s weather into Friday is where the weather system, now 1,000 miles offshore, comes ashore, Buehner said.

It likely will hit around Grays Harbor County, which means most of the heavy rain and winds will occur south of Tacoma along the south coast, extreme southwest Washington and Northwest Oregon, he said.

The Portland Weather Service office already has issued a high wind watch for that part of Oregon out to the coast, Bower said.

Sustained winds could be 35 to 45 mph with gusts to 70 mph on the south coast and into the Willapa Hills. South Sound and Lewis County could see 30 mph winds with higher gusts.

Tacoma would escape the brunt of the storm if it stays south, Buehner said.

Winds Thursday would be more in the 15- to 25-mph range with occasional higher gusts, he said. The Tacoma area could collect up to an inch or more of rain from the moisture-laden storm Thursday into Friday.

The southerly storm track also could lead to a flood watch later today for several southwest Washington rivers, including the Chehalis.

Buehner said that if the storm system tracks north and comes ashore by the Straits of Juan de Fuca and southern Vancouver Island, the central Puget Sound, including Seattle and Tacoma, could get the heavy rain and high winds.

A northerly track would bring a stronger storm and could lead to winds up to 60 mph and higher, he said.

“We will know more in the next 18 to 24 hours,” Buehner said, adding that residents should monitor the situation and stay prepared for anything.

By Friday, the storm should be through the area and bring cold air behind it. The snow level will probably drop to 1,000 feet and ease the avalanche danger. There still will be rain and showers with high temperatures in the lower 40 and lows in the mid 30s.

The weekend, Buehner said, will return more seasonable weather.

Snow in the mountains is a given with accumulations anywhere from 2 feet to nearly 4 feet Thursday and Friday depending on which track the storm takes, Buehner said.

Moore said the snowfall could lead to closures of the passes for up to an hour or more for avalanche control measures. He added that the snow conditions in the mountains are scaring avalanche professionals.

For the latest information on the storm, for to the National Weather Service at www.weather/gov/Seattle. For avalanche conditions, go to www.nwac.us. For highway conditions, go to the state Department of Transportation Web site at www.wsdot.wa.gov.

Mike Archbold: 253-597-8692