An analysis of election data by The News Tribune shows that Obama/Rossi voters are more than a political anomaly – they’re an important part of Pierce County’s electorate. Nearly a third of the votes cast in the county Nov. 4 were in precincts won by both Sen. Barack Obama, a Democrat, and former state Sen. Dino Rossi, a Republican.

The number of “crossover” precincts more than doubled compared with the 2004 general election, rising from representing about 13 percent of county voters to about 30 percent.

So, in a year when Obama won many precincts by large margins, when the county as a whole shifted from red to blue in the governor’s race, why did Rossi win so many suburban precincts that went blue in the presidential race?

Many crossover voters who spoke to The News Tribune said the election was less about party affiliation than it was about individual personalities, less about ideological consistency than pocketbook reality. For many of them the buzz of “change” trickled down-ticket to the governor’s race.

Indeed, Rossi echoed Obama’s theme of change in his advertisements and billboards.

“Tonight the Democrats have a nominee,” he said in one TV ad. “I agree with him on this, change is needed and not just in Washington, D.C.”

Obama/Rossi supporter Chuck Dalton, 74, of Key Center, also agreed.

“I just felt that there should be a change” in Olympia, too, he said.

“Four years is enough. Let’s give somebody else a chance to see what kind of mess they can get us into,” said Dalton, who calls himself “a Democrat more or less.”

The patchwork of purple starts to the east in the Gig Harbor area, leapfrogs Tacoma and sprawls across the suburban communities between Spanaway and Buckley. These same suburbs were the battleground for statewide races four years ago.

In 2004, Democrat Chris Gregoire won 130 precincts to Rossi’s 218. This time she won 149 and he won 176. (The total number of precincts differ because the auditor doesn’t report numbers in low-turnout districts).

So how did she win? The short answer is that she maintained her dominance in the Democratic stronghold of Tacoma and eked out smaller victories throughout the rest of the county.

The data show that she lost ground in 33 precincts, or fewer than 10 percent of them. Across those precincts she lost a total of 638 votes from 2004 totals.

Meanwhile, she picked up 21,706 votes across 294 precincts. That’s an average of 74 votes each.

Obama’s widespread support throughout the county didn’t help the Democratic governor as much as one might expect. About half of the precincts that Rossi won were also carried by Obama. There were 83 of these “crossover” precincts, mainly in the suburban communities around Lake Tapps, Puyallup, South Hill and Gig Harbor.

‘I WANTED TO SEND A MESSAGE’

Voters’ reasons for splitting their ticket varied.

Republicans signaled their desire to end the war in Iraq. Independents tried to steer the best fiscally conservative and socially liberal course. Left-leaning business owners felt Rossi would cut taxes and put money back into their pockets – the owner of one Tacoma pawnshop and payday loan business said he gave money to Gregoire, but ended up voting for Rossi as his thoughts turned to saving for retirement. Others said they’d just had enough of Gregoire.

This year was the first time that Lew Miller voted for a major Republican candidate since Ronald Reagan.

“I’m a small-business owner,” said Miller, 53, who owns the Red Hot tavern on Sixth Avenue in Tacoma.

“I still pick up pennies. I’m on the left, but I wanted to send a message to the Democrats that you can’t be constantly spending money without repercussions.”

Rossi made a projected $3.2 billion state budget shortfall a highlight of his campaign, blaming Gregoire for what he called reckless spending. Meanwhile, Gregoire pegged the state’s economic troubles to President George W. Bush’s policies and tried to tie Rossi to him.

Miller, who supported Hillary Rodham Clinton in the primary and then Obama (“He reminds me of JFK”), said he felt the election was a referendum on Gregoire’s performance. And though the Democratic incumbent won, Miller hopes his vote for Rossi telegraphs to her a desire for fiscal restraint.

“I read in the paper today that she’s doing another (budget) cut, trying to look for ways of saving money,” he said. “But it took her until Rossi came out and started running again. That’s when she stepped up.”

Dani Kirk, 54, of Tacoma, concurred.

“I think Dino Rossi had her nailed on budget issues,” said Kirk, who considers herself a Democrat. “I’ve seen prices go up, taxes go up. Our roads are in terrible condition. I’m not seeing things that were promised to be done done.”

She added a caveat: “I’m not saying Rossi would have been the best man for the job either, but he was the only other choice.”

‘A POLITICAL REALIGNMENT’

Consultant and former state Republican Party chairman Chris Vance said the shift was part of a national trend.

“I’m ready to call it a political realignment,” he said. “Suburban voters are very, very practical and competent. And they were just turned off by the Bush administration over Iraq, Katrina and a few other things.”

After a series of close polls, Rossi ultimately lost because of the economic downturn, Vance argued on Crosscut.com – allowing Gregoire to pick up more than 21,000 votes in Pierce County compared with 2004 results, while Rossi added 2,000.

“It wasn’t enough,” he said. “Rossi did worse in the suburbs than last time. Too many people said, ‘I’m finished with all Republicans, at least for the time being.’”

County Councilman Calvin Goings, a Puyallup Democrat, said Pierce is a classic swing county.

“I think suburban voters are very interested in the issues and don’t have any allegiances to one party or another,” he said. “They want the issues to be solved now and if they don’t think they’re being solved by the incumbent, they may look at the other camp.”

For Nancy Wilcox, a semi-retired painter who lives with her husband near Lake Tapps, it came down to the individuals.

“I try to vote for who I think is going to do the best job for everybody,” said Wilcox, an independent. “My husband was a staunch Republican, but he’s changed his mind in the last few years.”

Both of them voted for Rossi and Obama.

“Obama is promising change and not doing things the same old way,” she said. “And John McCain is too old.”

The couple moved south from King County in part to get a break on their property taxes, she said.

“Now we’re paying as much as we used to,” Wilcox said. “We’re tired of our taxes going up. Basically we voted for Rossi because every time the Democrats get the governor and the Legislature, they spend a lot more money than they should.”

Ian Demsky: 253-597-8872

ANOTHER LOOK AT 2008

Here are some facts and figures on Nov. 4 election results in Pierce County.

Voter Turnout

More people turned out to vote in Pierce County during this election cycle than for elections going back to at least 1976, both in terms of the raw number of voters and the percentage of registered voters.

Registered voters in the county grew by 1.5 percent, from 405,023 in 2004 to 411,103. The number of votes cast jumped by 16,822, or 5.3 percent, rising from 317,002 to 333,824.

Southern and eastern Tacoma and the surrounding areas saw some of the lowest turnout in the county.

PIERCE COUNTY AND THE VOTE FOR PRESIDENT

373
The number of precincts in Pierce County

182
The number of precincts President George W. Bush won in 2004

168
The number of precincts won by Sen. John Kerry in 2004. Kerry won the county.

There were two ties and 21 precincts for which there were either no votes or incomplete data available.*

236
The number of precincts won by Sen. Barack Obama in 2008

91
The number of precincts won by Sen. John McCain in 2008

There were two ties and 44 with no votes or incomplete data available.*

7,448
Kerry won in Pierce County in 2004 by a margin of 7,448 votes - about 2 percent.

40,151
Obama won by a margin of 40,151 votes - about 12 percent. That margin is more than twice the increase in cast ballots.

Tacoma's Hilltop
Where Obama saw his strongest support. In one precinct, he won 949 of 1,191 votes - 80 percent.

McChord Air Force Base
McCain saw his strongest support in a large precinct around McChord Air Force Base, where he won 61 percent of the vote, 249 of 408 votes. He won 64 percent of another precinct where fewer than 40 votes were cast.

1,447
The number of people who didn't make a pick for president. That's two-thirds of what it was in 2004, when it was 2,138.

1,816
The number or write-in votes in 2008. That's nearly four times as many as in 2004, when there were 462.

* The county Auditor's Office does not release detailed results for some of the smallest precincts to protect voter identities.

Sources: Pierce County Auditor's Office,
News Tribune analysis

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