Sen. John McCain is either a shrewd judge of fresh political talent or a riverboat gambler who likes long odds. We’ll probably know one way or the other in a few weeks.

His choice of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate came out of the blue. On paper, her résumé is slim: less than two years as governor, chairwoman of the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, several terms as a councilwoman and mayor of a small town north of Anchorage.

If that’s ample experience for national leadership, Republicans will have to shut up about Barack Oba- ma’s scant four years in the Senate.

Palin’s chief recommendation to McCain: estrogen. She is about to become only the second woman in U.S. history to share a major-party presidential ticket. That’s an audacious challenge to the Democratic Party’s standing as political groundbreaker, with the first black major-party presidential nominee and the almost-first major-party female nominee.

Palin’s other apparent political qualification is her Western-style conservatism, which promises to tighten McCain’s heretofore-shaky grip on his own Republican base.

The big question is, does someone with Palin’s skimpy credentials belong on any presidential ticket?

McCain presumably has studied her very closely. Clearly, there are hints of steel within her. On the way to the governorship, she took a wrecking ball to Alaska’s corrupt political establishment. She’s got convincing credentials as a reformer.

An obvious comparison is with Dan Quayle, the photogenic, youthful-looking senator the first President Bush chose as his running mate – and who was soon exposed as sadly out of his depth. Palin likewise is calculated to broaden the Republican ticket’s appeal to moderate, nonpartisan women. That will backfire, though, if she proves as clumsy and lacking in heft as Quayle.

McCain has put his own judgment under a microscope with this risky choice. If Palin turns out to be a female Quayle, McCain will have committed a stunning blunder. But if she comes across as a smart, skilled, ready-for-prime-time leader, she could help draw centrist Clinton supporters who may already be tempted to vote Republican.

One thing Palin is not: a safe choice. But with the way Democrats have been making history of late, this is a year in which safe choices are not safe choices.