The numbers through 126 games say the Mariners play better against winning clubs than losing clubs and better on the road than at home.
Because if the Mariners are to reach postseason for the first time in 13 years, they’ll need to do so by playing a tougher schedule and more road games than any other major contender.
Didn’t think this was going to be easy, did you?
The Mariners (68-58) had an open date Thursday before opening a three-game weekend series against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park.
And with the September stretch run looming on the horizon, that makes this the perfect time to assess where the Mariners are positioned among the American League’s other postseason contenders.
Our breakdown is limited to clubs with winning records. And we’ve listed them in order of their likelihood, though computer projections, to reach postseason.
Our computer odds are an average of the simulations run by ESPN, Baseball Prospectus and fangraphs.com.
The schedule difficulty was determined by an average of the winning percentage for a club’s remaining opponents.
All stats and computations are prior to Thursday’s games. (So, no, Detroit’s 1-0 loss at Tampa Bay on Thursday, which helps the Mariners, is not included in the calculations.)
LOS ANGELES ANGELS
KANSAS CITY ROYALS
TORONTO BLUE JAYS
NEW YORK YANKEES