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Grocery Prices Are Finally Expected to Cool This Year. Just Not for These Staples
By Adam Hardy MONEY RESEARCH COLLECTIVE
Grocery inflation is easing in 2026, but key foods will still hit wallets harder.
After years of unrelenting price hikes, the cost of groceries is finally expected to level out in 2026, with food-at-home inflation dipping below the average.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture is predicting that grocery prices will rise approximately 1.7% in 2026, marking a decrease from 2.3% in 2025 and from the 20-year average of 2.6%.
This moderation comes as relief for Americans who have been watching their grocery costs inflate by more than 25% over the past five years.
Much of the easing comes from plummeting prices for eggs and dairy products, which are actually expected to deflate this year, by 22.2% and 0.9%, respectively, according to the USDA.
On the other hand, some grocery prices are jumping much higher than normal. Here are a few foods that didn’t get the cost-cooling memo.
Red meats
The USDA expects prices to jump for all meats — including seafood and poultry — by 4.3% in 2026, higher than the average of 3.1%.
Looking closer, a few specific types of red meat are largely to blame. Beef and veal prices are predicted to soar 9.4%, while the cost of other meats like processed cold cuts and hot dogs will rise 4.3%.
Meanwhile, fish and seafood prices are expected to increase by a lower-than-average 2.4%. Pork may get 0.3% cheaper.
Beef, in particular, has been stubbornly expensive lately. Analysts say farmers have been dealing with droughts, high interest rates and shrinking herds, causing prices to soar.
Sweets
Got a sweet tooth? I have some bad news for you.
Sugars and sweets, such as candy, cookies and other desserts, are in line for big price hikes. The USDA says the cost for these types of items will go up 6.7%, more than doubling the historical average of 3.1%.
According to the World Economic Forum, climate-change induced droughts are affecting sugar production overseas, and at home, the U.S. maintains a longtime trade policy that restricts the amount of sugar food companies can import. Both factors are pushing prices up.
Non-alcoholic drinks
Juices, coffee, teas, sodas and other drinks are about to get more expensive.
The USDA categorizes these broadly under “non-alcoholic beverages” and estimates that prices will rise 4.2% this year. Historically, prices for these drinks tend to increase 2.4% annually. Last year, they rose 3.8%.
Other foods
The USDA tracks the prices of 15 subcategories of foods. These largely consist of meat, dairy, eggs, fats, oils, fruits, vegetables, sugar, sweets, cereals, bakery products and non-alcoholic beverages.
Groceries such as condiments, spices, sauces, snacks, bars and other products that don’t fit into the above categories are simply labeled as “other foods.”
Combined, prices for these types of groceries are estimated to increase 3.1% this year — much higher than last year’s 0.9% as well as the historical average of 2.4%.
PepsiCo, the maker of Lay’s, Doritos and other major snack brands, is trying to buck that trend. Earlier this month, the company said it is cutting the price of many snacks by up to 15%.
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Adam Hardy is Money's lead data journalist. He writes news and feature stories aimed at helping everyday people manage their finances. He joined Money full-time in 2021 but has covered personal finance and economic topics since 2018. Previously, he worked for Forbes Advisor, The Penny Hoarder and Creative Loafing. In addition to those outlets, Adam’s work has been featured in a variety of local, national and international publications, including the Asia Times, Business Insider, Las Vegas Review-Journal, Yahoo! Finance, Nasdaq and several others. Adam graduated with a bachelor’s degree from the University of South Florida, where he studied magazine journalism and sociology. As a first-generation college graduate from a low-income, single-parent household, Adam understands firsthand the financial barriers that plague low-income Americans. His reporting aims to illuminate these issues. Since joining Money, Adam has already written over 300 articles, including a cover story on financial surveillance, a profile of Director Rohit Chopra of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and an investigation into flexible spending accounts, which found that workers forfeit billions of dollars annually through the workplace plans. He has also led data analysis on some of Money’s marquee rankings, including Best Places to Live, Best Places to Travel and Best Hospitals. He regularly contributes data reporting for Best Colleges, Best Banks and other lists as well. Adam also holds a multimedia storytelling certificate from Poynter’s News University and a data journalism certificate from the Investigative Reporters and Editors (IRE) at the University of Missouri. In 2017, he received an English teaching certification from the University of Cambridge, which he utilized during his time in Seoul, South Korea. There, he taught students of all ages, from 5 to 65, and worked with North Korean refugees who were resettling in the area. Now, Adam lives in Saint Petersburg, Florida, with his pup Bambi. He is a card-carrying shuffleboard club member.