Without Eyman or a recession, governments might run amok where taxes are concerned

Propped next to the computer this is being written on is the friendly reminder from the Department of Licensing that it’s time to renew car tabs. For all the grief that motor-vehicle departments around the country get, Washington’s actually does make the process reasonably efficient and painless, right up to the point it’s time to hit the approve-payment button.

In this case the payment is $309.75 on a 4-year old minivan.

The Legislature is currently confronted with the grim prospect of voters having similar renewal notices in close proximity to their ballots in late October, when they’re asked to vote on a Tim Eyman-sponsored measure to slice car tabs to $30, undoing one of the whopping tax increases Sound Transit got voter approval for three years ago.

With an initiative to the Legislature, lawmakers can approve it now, send it on to the ballot or come up with an alternative that would also appear on the fall ballot.

What to do about the initiative was the subject of debate at a legislative hearing last week. As reported by The News Tribune’s James Drew, opponents of the initiative advocate sending it to the ballot without taking action, arguing that it would be easier to defeat it there.

They might be right.

Voters in this region approved Sound Transit 3 in the first place by a comfortable margin. Are there enough grumpy motorists to offset growth in the “carless urban dweller” demographic in the three-county region? Further, Eyman initiatives have a history of getting tied up, bogged down and deep-sixed in the courts even when they’re approved.

What might make opponents of the initiative, and Sound Transit’s administrators, ever so slightly nervous is the question of just how many grumpy voters there are and just how grumpy they are because of the hefty car-tab fees along with everything else.

Right now there’s a lot of everything else going on.

Property taxes are higher because property values are higher. Tax-increase proposals keep coming at the voters with the regularity of ocean waves — in King County voters will be asked to approve a sales-tax increase for parks and trails. The continuing parade of stories about school budget shortfalls and staff cuts sure has the feel of laying the groundwork for more taxes for more education spending. Meanwhile, the Washington Policy Center reported that the courts are still being asked to allow Seattle — and other cities — to impose an income tax.

And the carbon tax — which has been in more sequels than the masked ax-wielding fiend in an ‘80s horror movie — is back yet again, wending its way through the Legislature despite being pummeled by voters as recently as last November.

This would seem to be a prime moment for Eyman, for decades now the state’s most visible and successful anti-tax activist, except that Eyman is otherwise occupied by personal problems, pursuit by the state’s attorney general and governor-in-waiting and some odd behavior (i.e., The Office Chair Affair). The editorial page of this newspaper called for Eyman’s benching, an idea that has some merit. It’s never good when the story becomes the messenger, not the message.

The problem is, most who would like to see Eyman leave the public scene would be even happier if no one replaced him as an anti-tax advocate. They may get their wish on both counts, because as of now, there is no alternative. This would be a great issue for a Republican Party to seize and succeed on, or would be if Washington actually had a Republican Party to mount such an effort.

Given the party’s waning presence, effectiveness and credibility, the truth of a statement this columnist has made for years, in this and other venues, is reaffirmed: Tim Eyman has been the closest thing Washington has had to a two-party system.

Voters will still rise up on occasion and swat away a tax proposal — even in Seattle the prospect of a per-employee tax on major companies like Amazon looked to be in trouble before the proposal was rewritten. But without a concerted and organized counterbalance, voters can expect the proposals for new taxes to continue.

If government doesn’t hold much sympathy for the plight of the taxpayers, it might spare some for the mess it’s setting itself up for.

Washington got off comparatively lightly in the Great Recession, and the component economic drivers — tech, aerospace, agriculture — that carried it through have continued to do well. For now, prospects look good for continuing health for at least the first two of those, and should a national or global recession hit (the historical record says we’re overdue), maybe they’ll be exempt again and continue to carry the load.

That’s a lot of maybe’s to be banking on, but as along as those hold, government can grab while the grabbing’s good. The crunch comes when one or more major components goes into a swoon, reducing the level of revenue from that which government has become accustomed (and has spent as though that level is permanent).

If the money government is collecting now isn’t enough, in the midst of a historic run for the economy, what happens when there’s less of it?

This story was originally published March 2, 2019 at 8:00 AM.