Among the worst thing sportswriters do is project and predict - areas in which we're no more gifted or lucky than anyone else.
Most of the civilized world, for instance, believed the 2008 Seattle Mariners would contend in the American League West.
Just ask the media.
Well, over at SI.com, Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus has been doing a series - GM For A Day - and evaluating teams, including the Mariners.
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In a division in 'transition,' he writes, the Mariners might just surprise everyone and contend.
Why? Among other things, he says the Seattle rotation is among the top five in the league.
It's an intriguing take, heavy with sabermetric analysis, and worth exactly what you'll pay for it by clicking here.
If you're a Mariners fan expecting the worst, it just might cheer you up.