Will you go out to eat right away when COVID restrictions lift? Most will wait and see

Despite the images of people swarming bars and restaurants in states where stay-at-home orders have been lifted or otherwise eased, more than two-thirds of Americans say they won’t head straight out when given the chance.

About half will wait a few weeks — and up to three months — before asking a friend to lunch, according to a survey from behavioral researchers at Washington State University.

“Initially there’s a fear that people don’t like to go to closed places,” said Dogan Gursoy, a hospitality and tourism expert and professor at the university’s Carson College of Business.

Restaurants with patios will likely benefit from any initial burst as each county reopens its dining rooms — with restrictions, including half-capacity and tables spaced at least six feet apart.

“They are trying to see if there is going to be a second wave,” Gursoy told The News Tribune. “Most people are not willing to risk it.”

Gursoy joined fellow hospitality management professor Christina G. Chi and Ph.D. candidate Oscar Hengxuan Chi in surveying 785 people in the first week of May. Just over half of respondents were female, and a majority were between the ages of 26 and 54. About a third reside in the western United States.

One-fifth of those surveyed said they were “likely” or “very likely” to return to a restaurant if they could the next day. About 13 percent considered themselves neutral on the possibility.

About 44 percent said they were “very unlikely” to go to a restaurant right away, with another 22 percent “unlikely.”

In a small, informal survey of 84 readers of The News Tribune conducted online by TNT Diner, more than a third said they would “absolutely” return to restaurants right away. One in five said they would dine out but “infrequently or less often than before.”

On the flip side, more than a quarter said, “No, probably not for a while.”

According to the WSU research, consumers also seem hesitant to immediately go out with friends. Technically, in the state of Washington, residents should refrain from meeting with more than five people outside their household on a weekly basis.

Of those surveyed, less than 9 percent said they would call a friend “immediately,” though four in 10 would within the first month. Nearly half, however, would wait up to three months or more to patronize an eatery with anyone other than family.

“I think that’s consistent with people’s expectations,” said Gursoy. The wait-and-see approach replicates the downturn that restaurants experienced as the pandemic was taking hold.

“People stopped going to restaurants way before governors closed restaurants,” he said. “It will take some time. Some people don’t care, some people will go immediately, but most people are going to wait.”

The researchers also asked respondents about their willingness to travel and stay in a hotel as commerce returns to some semblance of normalcy. Those findings show a longer road to recovery, and indicate that family travel will supersede outings with friends.

More than half said they would not travel far enough away that they would need a hotel in the second half of June or July, and more than 60 percent will wait anywhere from three months to more than six.

After more than two months of social distancing, said Chi, consumers seem wary of suddenly mixing with friends, whose actions they can’t control as much as those of their own family.

WHAT KINDS OF RESTAURANTS WILL WE FREQUENT?

Casual dining could see the greatest influx of customers as restaurants re-open, followed by family-style and fast-casual.

Respondents to the informal TNT Diner survey seemed to echo that sentiment, with many casual and family-oriented places mentioned by name — El Toro, The Spar, Cooks Tavern, Farelli’s Pizza, Little Jerry’s and Steamers Seafood Cafe.

Still, many Tacomans are eager to enjoy restaurants appreciated as special-occasion destinations, such as The Lobster Shop, El Gaucho and Pacific Grill. Even more are ready to take advantage of waterfront spots and summertime patios.

Interestingly, said Chi, fine dining might not take the hit that many in the industry worry will happen, as north of 40 million people have filed for unemployment and sales in industries far beyond restaurants have likewise shrunk.

More than 15 percent of survey respondents said they will head to a fancier restaurant — a high number, according to Chi, considering there are fewer fine-dining restaurants than casual and counter-service options.

“I think they are sick and tired of being at home and they want to reward themselves,” she said, noting that tables in a fancier restaurant are more likely to already be spaced farther apart. “It’s a unique dining experience (with) the safety that people are looking for. It’s a reward.”

As for what customers will expect of restaurants when they do return, the top focus is visible sanitizing.

In addition to having numerous hand sanitizer stations, more than 60 percent want to see staff cleaning tables and chairs before they sit down. About half expect employees to wear masks.

Not many want to experience the sterile setup of having plastic glass between tables, as restaurants in countries ranging from South Korea to Italy have tried: Less than a quarter of respondents to Chi and Gursoy’s survey said they would prefer plastic glass.

Restaurants that have the space might consider using some sort of barrier to create private dining rooms within their spaces, said Chi.

What she really wonders, though, is how far contactless systems will take hold in America post-pandemic. Touch-and-go credit cards are already widely used in Europe and Asia but are only starting to catch on in the U.S., where consumers remain hesitant to embrace artificial intelligence in social transactions.

COVID-19 could change that, said Chi.

How much we minimize interaction with staff could be the defining factor between feeling uneasy about going out to a restaurant and feeling safe, she added.

This story was originally published June 2, 2020 at 5:00 AM.