Pierce County’s affordable homes are still enticing. So when does the slowdown start?

What goes up will — eventually — come down, bubble or no bubble.

A recent national survey by ValueInsured, which sells policies to guard against falling home values, put the spotlight on our red-hot housing market and the question, “Are we approaching a housing bubble?”

Washington topped the list of those worried about that question, at 71 percent, closely followed by New York at 68 percent. Also in the top 5 of concerned states: Florida, California and Texas.

For residents of Pierce County, which saw its median home price at $312,250 in July, at least one agent says, hang on to your resolve.

“The buyers in south Puget Sound seem more concerned with gaining a foothold in the market rather than worrying whether prices have reached their maximum and are headed down,” wrote Dick Beeson, principal managing broker with Re/Max Professionals.

He responded via email to questions seeking his view of what’s happening on this side of the county line, away from King County’s meteoric rise in median home prices, up more than $100,000 in one year.

“This survey is a good example of how a small sampling of people, whose opinions are based on personal beliefs, extrapolates into a fearful and fretful story of eminent doom in the housing market.”

“It’s true that there are many buyers who are priced out of certain Pierce County/Tacoma neighborhoods,” he wrote. “These people are fearful that they will not be able to afford to buy a home with the continued rising prices.

“It is also true that the scarcity of homes for sale, both new and existing, coupled with the burgeoning employment market in Puget Sound, will cause continued escalation in prices, albeit, at a slower pace.”

Other market pressures include the outward migration of King County residents to Pierce County and points beyond in search of more affordable housing.

“We may not have the high wages that occur in Seattle and on the Eastside (Bellevue, Issaquah, Redmond), but we do have a much better selection of affordable homes.” Beeson wrote.

That selection isn’t going unnoticed by those with the money to spend.

Beeson said that locally, sellers have seen some peaking of pricing above $400,000. In Gig Harbor, he noted, median prices last month were well into the $400,000-plus range.

In Seattle, “home prices are up 69 percent since the December 2011 trough and now exceed the May 2007 peak by 17 percent,” according to the state’s August economic and revenue update, published Friday.

“Not only are prices rising faster in Seattle than in other major metropolitan areas but also the rate of price appreciation in Seattle has been increasing in recent years,” the update noted.

This again can put more pressure on Pierce County’s inventory.

“Buyer demand will drive up prices in certain parts of Tacoma, (North Tacoma, West Tacoma, University Place, areas with new subdivisions in Puyallup) just as they have in Seattle,” Beeson wrote.

But we don’t appear to be in “The Big Short” scenario of those-who-can-fog-a-mirror-can-buy-a-home in the Tacoma area.

Beeson notes several factors have improved the market to some extent — “better loans are being made, more qualified buyers, large cash down payments at time of purchase from a high percentage of buyers.”

Low inventory and construction not keeping pace with the influx of new residents here from King County and the rest of the country remain our top issues, keeping prices on an upward trajectory for now.

“You can hire people for any industry a lot faster than you can get housing suddenly online,” Josh Brown, executive director of the Puget Sound Regional Council, said in an interview with The News Tribune earlier this summer.

From mid-2013 to mid-2017, state and U.S. Census data show, 285,900 people moved to Pierce, King, Kitsap and Snohomish counties. In that time frame, 82,521 housing units were built in those four counties.

Another problem, pointed out by another broker in Northwest Multiple Listing Service’s news release Aug. 7, is that “the already-low inventory is being further squeezed when homeowners who move up are choosing to rent their current home instead of listing it.”

The listing service noted that the area’s condo listings, in particular, are down more than 21.5 percent from this time last year. In Pierce County alone, condo prices are more than 10 percent above last year’s. (Home prices, by comparison are nearly 10 percent more than last year).

Again, Beeson says, hang on.

“There will be a slowdown in price increases; nothing lasts forever. I think price increases will continue to rise through 2018 throughout Pierce County. The pace will be half of the 12 percent we’ve experienced in the last 3 years. After that, we’ll probably see a reduction in the rate of price increases.”

News Tribune archives contributed to this report.

This story was originally published August 14, 2017 at 8:00 AM with the headline "Pierce County’s affordable homes are still enticing. So when does the slowdown start?."