Gold prices may stay stuck as Saxo bank warns rally looks fragile

Gold prices are jumping again, but Saxo Bank analysts aren't treating it as a clean breakout.

According to Seeking Alpha reporting, Saxo Bank analysts note that we're still seeing gold and silver pulled between safe-haven demand, the dollar, and the latest on the Iran War.

Investors continue to bargain hunt, but they aren't stampeding back into the trade either. That's the tension at this point, where, after the king metal's tremendous run, the setup has gotten a lot more complicated than before.

That said, I covered a similar revamp at Morgan Stanley earlier this week, and the takeaway is effectively in line with Saxo's caution.

Morgan Stanley cut its second-half 2026 gold target to $5,200 from $5,700, on the back of sluggish official demand, ETF outflows, and fading rate-cut hopes.

Saxo Bank analysts warn that until we see clarity toward peace, gold and silver will remain rangebound.

Put simply, prices can rise, but arguably, the easy part of the rally is over.

Junko Kimura/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Gold and silver returns stand out

• Gold is up $323.19, or 7.37%, over 30 days.
• Gold is up $700.79, or 17.50%, over 6 months.
• Gold is up $1,373.57, or 41.22%, over 1 year.
• Gold is up $2,925.12, or 164.23%, over 5 years.
• Silver is up $7.58, or 11.18%, over 30 days.
• Silver is up $28.60, or 61.10%, over 6 months.
• Silver is up $42.31, or 127.82%, over 1 year.
• Silver is up $49.20, or 187.69%, over 5 years.
  
  Source: Goldprice.org.

Gold's recent rally has lost momentum

Gold has clearly lost some of its shine of late.

Over the past couple of weeks, the king metal has moved from the mid-to-high $4,700s to the high $4,800s, then slipped back to the low $4,700s.

Though that is far from a disaster, it shows that the trade has gotten much harder.

At the start of the year, gold rallied on the back of rate-cut confidence, falling yields, and safe-haven demand.

However, of late, oil-driven inflationary pressures, a stronger dollar, higher yields, and ETF selling have taken a ton of that air out of the move.

SPDR Gold Shares vs. the S&P 500 returns

• YTD: SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) is up 9.32%, while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) is up 4.98%.
• 2025: GLD returned 63.68%, while SPY returned 17.72%.
• 2024: GLD returned 26.66%, while SPY returned 24.89%.
• 2023: GLD returned 12.69%, while SPY returned 26.18%.
• 2022: GLD fell 0.77%, while SPY fell 18.18%.
• 2021: GLD fell 4.15%, while SPY gained 28.73%.
• 2020: GLD returned 24.81%, while SPY returned 18.33%.
  
  Source: Total return data from TotalRealReturns.

Gold's next move depends on the dollar

Gold and silver are getting pulled in a couple of directions at once.

On the one hand, lower war risks are taking the fear out of the trade.

Saxo Bank analysts said, "Trump's extension of the ceasefire reduces the immediate risk of military escalation," which lowers the chance of another major inflationary oil-price spike. Hotter oil can push inflation significantly higher, keeping rates elevated and gold a lot less attractive.

On the other side, the same de-escalation can weigh-down the dollar, which helps as gold and silver are priced in dollars.

That is why Saxo's analysts believe that Gold will likely remain rangebound in this scenario

The argue that gold and silver may remain "in competition with the dollar for direction" until there is a clearer peace path.

Wall Street's latest price targets on gold

• Wells Fargo Investment Institute: $6,100 to $6,300 by the end of 2026.
• Commerzbank: $5,000 by year-end 2026.
• J.P. Morgan: $6,300 by the fourth quarter of 2026.
• BNP Paribas: $5,620 average for 2026, with a peak above $6,250 possible by year-end.
• Citi Research: $5,000 near-term price target.
• Macquarie Group: $4,323 average for 2026.
• Morgan Stanley:$5,200 per ounce, down from $5,700 for the second half of 2026.
  
  Source: Reuters.

Gold's chart is flashing caution

Gold's technical setup is far from broken, but it has become much more fragile.

For instance, Forex.com's Razan Hilal said gold is consolidating below key resistance levels. So buyers haven't pushed prices high enough to regain control of the trend.

The key line remains $4,640 an ounce.

As long as gold holds that area, the markets can stabilize and move sideways while traders wait for the next major catalyst.

Perhaps the bigger issue is that gold has struggled of late around its short-term average near the low $4,700s, suggesting momentum has cooled.

On the upside, though, gold needs to reclaim the high $4,800s to look healthier again. Until then, rallies will continue running into sellers.

The downside is more important here.

If gold breaks below $4,640, the pullback could deepen quickly, with traders then watching key support levels near the mid-to-low $4,000s.

Related: Fidelity sends blunt message on S&P 500 after sudden rebound

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This story was originally published April 26, 2026 at 8:17 AM.