Look for a fight over taxes to be the dominant local business story in 2019

It was an action-packed year — but then, when isn’t it? — for the discussion of business and economic news, trends and topics in this space, but who would have guessed that the column that would stir the most reader response would be the saga of a submarine that hasn’t been here in 50 years?

A request for information about the USS Cabezon, moored on the Hylebos for training and the occasional public tour, prompted a wealth of reader emails detailing their personal memories of the sub and confirming that a tiny item in an old tourism-map book was accurate if a bit outdated.

In the midst of so much reminiscing, it’s easy to lose sight of the original point the column was attempting to make by mentioning the Cabezon in the first place. That column, along with a lot of others in 2018, was an effort to address the perennial questions of where (in economic-development terms) is Tacoma headed, and how does it plan to get there?

One component of the region’s economic-development plan is tourism, an industry whose impact is felt several ways. The industry itself generates jobs and imports wealth to the community through the dollars visitors spend. But the sorts of attractions and amenities that make people want to visit also are the sorts of interesting things to see and do that make this a nice place to work and live, a big boost to business recruitment.

Tacoma’s maritime heritage and setting provide great opportunities to build a tourism industry that serves the locals in multiple ways. One submarine or other historic vessel isn’t going to magically transform the city into a tourism destination mobbed by visitors. But it can be one more piece in a portfolio of tourism assets that pay dividends to the community.

So, who’s got a submarine they’re not doing anything with?

▪ Of course, it wasn’t all fun and submarines in 2018. Trade fights dominated the news all year.

Two phrases columnists should never utter in print: “Time will tell” and “It remains to be seen.” But conclusions about trade battles were no easier to draw at the end of 2018 than at the start of the year.

For all the complaining about dire economic consequences and antagonizing other countries, trade didn’t come to a halt, the economy didn’t fall apart, and the U.S. was able to force China to at least make some noises about playing nice. But making noises is not the same thing as taking concrete action, and the landscape changes by the day, thanks to delays and changes in the implementation of duties, court cases and rulings by trade bodies, domestic politics, policy shifts and decisions by individual companies and industries.

Will we be able to tell you definitively at the end of 2019 the outcome of the Great Trade War? All together now, “It remains to be seen …”

▪ Was there a week or a topic in which Amazon did not make an appearance? Indeed there was — the “everything store” does not as of now sell full-size military submarines — although at times it seemed ubiquitous, whether the topic was health care, banking, delivery services, the $15-an-hour minimum wage or the HQ2 nonsense.

Don’t expect to see Amazon retreat from its constant experimentation, including the cashier-free stores and other bricks-and-mortar outlets, or its kick-the-tires interest in new lines of business. Be on the lookout for tweaks to the model, a tightening of operations, even a jettisoning of ventures that didn’t work as hoped. If nothing else, Amazon exists to keep pundits and prognosticators busy.

▪ Speaking of topics that aren’t going away, taxes made an appearance as a column topic several times in 2018, especially in connection with HQ2 and the broader issue of economic-development incentives. That issue will continue to be big in 2019 if we find ourselves in a competition for the next Boeing plane.

Whatever the tax-increase proposal of the moment happens to be (an energy tax in 2018, a capital-gains tax in 2019) will get a look. But there’s a long-term tax issue that is already playing havoc with many people’s lives. The accumulating tax burden, especially from property taxes, is squeezing the ability of many in the middle class to live where they are, never mind trying to buy into the market.

Taxpayers have been told they can afford the current burden because times are great. If the economy stalls, they’ll be told government needs the money. Next year is an off-year, in that federal and state offices aren’t on the ballot, so a taxpayer revolt (if there is one) will have to wait a year. Maybe there won’t be one, given the shifting political climate of the state. But taxpayers don’t have infinite patience or bottomless wallets. They said no to the energy tax this year. They’ll be watching who has a hand out, and how much they’re trying to grab.

As will we. On to 2019.

This story was originally published December 22, 2018 at 8:00 AM.