You might have missed it with all the COVID-19 news, but Boeing is faltering even more

Did you experience just a smidgen of optimism recently, a moment of hope however fleeting, a sense that we might have actually reached a peak, that we can see the light at the end of the tunnel?

Maybe it was prompted by no more than an hour or two of slightly warmer, sunnier weather, or perhaps the inspiration was a bit of news, such as the item that Washington is actually shipping ventilators to other states that need them to treat hospitalized coronavirus victims.

Whatever the reason, let us return you to a mood of doom and gloom.

Not regarding the virus — predicting how it will behave or what will contain it has proven a fool’s errand for legions of experts. Instead the cause of pessimism is one we had before anyone knew what a COVID-19 was.

The problem is Boeing.

If it’s possible to obscure bad news about the state’s largest private-sector employer, Boeing’s latest didn’t grab screaming headlines only because it was elbowed out of the way by all the bad coronavirus-pandemic-related headlines. The impact also might have been dampened by the fact it ratified an already existing condition — Boeing had previously announced it was idling its Puget Sound-region production facilities for two weeks, so announcing an indefinite continuation wasn’t, at first glance, a marked change.

In fact the impact and ramifications of Boeing’s recent flurry of announcements are as ominous for the economic health of this region and this country as any news about a coronavirus rebound.

The reasons:

▪ When Boeing announced it was suspending production at the Renton plant, it also said it would not lay off workers there. When Boeing announced the 14-day production suspension for its Puget Sound factories in late March, it said workers would receive paid leave for 10 of those days.

This time, however, idled workers won’t be paid; Machinists District 751 is encouraging members to file for unemployment compensation.

▪ Three little words that pack a lot of meaning into them: “until further notice.” Not two weeks, not two months, not any specific time for resuming production. Boeing probably doesn’t want to get caught having to revise yet another deadline it winds up not meeting, but the bad news is it doesn’t feel confident enough of either its situation with the 737 Max or the coronavirus to commit to a reopening date.

Bad news in turn for the employees who won’t be earning money, bad news for the suppliers and vendors who are also in limbo, bad news for the regional economy that depends on the spending by employees at Boeing and its supply chain. Uncertainty makes the news worse. Had there been some definite date for production to resume and paychecks to flow, families and businesses had some hope of figuring out a strategy for surviving the hiatus.

▪ Now it’s not just the Puget Sound region. Also this past week Boeing announced it is suspending 787 operations in South Carolina “until further notice.” Boeing will pay employees there for 10 days of leave; after that they can use accrued paid time off or file for unemployment.

▪ Now it’s not just Boeing. Also last week (which was a real peach for economic news) Airbus announced it is suspending production at Mobile, Alabama, and a German facility until April 29. Second-quarter production rates will come in a third lower than pre-virus levels.

The issue now is not just what the coronavirus is doing to people who work in aircraft assembly plants. It’s also what the coronavirus has done and will do to the air travel industry. The forecasts are for a recovery period for passenger levels that will take years. Even with massive government assistance to the industry, some airlines won’t survive, and those that do won’t need all the planes they ordered just months ago. In fact they don’t need many of the planes they’ve got and are parking them.

▪ So aggressively has COVID-19 taken over the news that it’s sometimes forgotten that Boeing was a worry well before the virus showed up, much less why. The answer to why is the grounding worldwide of the 737 Max fleet in the wake of two fatal crashes. Boeing and regulators have been wrangling for months for fixes to the plane.

Things have been ominously (that word, again) quiet on the Max front. The April 5 announcement extending the Puget Sound-region shutdown didn’t even mention the plane. True, governments and Boeing have been a bit preoccupied of late, and clearing the plane for return to commercial service might not be a top priority just now.

But even if COVID-19 were to miraculously vanish tomorrow, Boeing, and the part of the economy that relies upon it, still would be in very big trouble.

Having set the tone for the coming days with those cheery thoughts, stay well and have a great week.

This story was originally published April 11, 2020 at 7:00 AM.