COVID-19 is walloping the economy. How will that play out in the 2020 elections?
In a normal time, an election being held in a year evenly divisible by four would be a big deal in Washington, perhaps the biggest news story of the year.
This being anything but a normal time, the election ranks no better than third.
It might not even be that high, depending on whether you break out aspects of the COVID-19 and the racial issues/George Floyd/Black Lives Matters/policing policies/protests and riots stories as separate entries on the list of 2020’s top stories.
Nor should we forget the continuing saga of Boeing’s continuing troubles, a situation with more potential to wreak havoc, now and for the long run, on the local economy than any mere election.
Nonetheless, an election is what we’re left to deal with — the primary this coming Tuesday, Aug. 4, the general Nov. 3 — so we might as well get on with the dreary business of taking a look at how business and economic issues figure into it. Or don’t.
Unfortunately official sources of information such as the voter’s guide are of limited utility in analyzing candidates’ thinking about and proposals for specific topics like the economy.
The problem is not so much with the guide itself, which at least provides in one place the full menu of candidates. But good luck finding in the candidate statements much in the way of specifics as to how government budgets are to be balanced and what if anything government can or should do to prop up the economy in general or industries and companies in particular.
You will find a lot of fighting, or at least references to it. Modern politics must be a violent existence to judge from the number of candidates pledging to fight for some cause or constituency. If you took a shot of some intoxicating beverage on every mention of fighting, or each time the buzzword of the moment – “equity” – was employed, you’d be dangerously blotto before you were halfway through the guide.
Conversely, you could finish reading the guide and still be sober and thirsty employing the same drinking-game strategy looking for specifics on taxes to raise (or cut) or spending to cut (or raise).
No politician wants to commit to a position that might annoy much of the electorate before voters have even filled out their ballots, or to make a promise to deliver something they couldn’t and have to explain why come the next election. Better to pledge to “fight,” even if it’s really only shadowboxing. Candidates in Washington tend not to roll to victory on the strength of an enthusiastic endorsement of a state income tax.
Those candidates who hope to be sent or returned to the other Washington have a little more leeway in employing this strategy, since the federal government is allowed to run deficits and accumulate massive levels of debt, rolling it over into perpetuity.
Candidates headed to Olympia, the county seat or City Hall don’t have that luxury. They’re expected — required, actually — to report balanced budgets, a job complicated by the pandemic and made even more challenging by events of the past week.
The state’s Economic and Revenue Forecast Council reported in June that “the mandated closure of non-essential businesses and stay-at -home orders that began in March have had a large impact on state revenue collections. Even though those restrictions are starting to be lifted, the June forecast does not show the national and state economies returning to their pre-pandemic levels until late 2021.
“The net result is the negation of almost two years of economic growth.”
That was before the pandemic not only didn’t subside but intensified. That was before the latest round of permanent store and restaurant closings, both national chains and local establishments. That was before many school districts decided to punt on in-classroom reopening (making the back-to-school shopping season, a significant one for many retailers, an increasingly shaky proposition). That was before some tech giants like Google and Amazon extended their work-from-home protocols.
That also was before Boeing’s latest pronouncements about jobs (more cuts), production levels (further reductions) and eventual recovery of the airline industry (even later than had been predicted).
Those aspiring to elected office might be avoiding a discussion of specific measures in hopes the virus spontaneously dissipates and the economy shifts to robust recovery mode. The likelihood of that happening dims by the day. By the time the Legislature convenes in January, if not called back sooner, the accumulated impact of closings, shutdowns and layoffs might shave even more off our legacy of the boom years.
If voters want specifics as to what officeholders will do then, they’ll need to start asking now and continue to do so through early November. Politicians love to talk about how they’ll fight for this and that. COVID-19 threatens to make that cliché a stark reality.