UW model suggests mid-April peak for coronavirus in Washington state with scores more deaths
As the state starts to gain a clearer picture of the coronavirus outbreak, the million-dollar question now on everyone’s mind: When is the outbreak going to peak?
New models released by the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation on Friday offer projections through the current coronavirus season, along with estimated peaks and death tolls for each state and the nation as a whole.
Researchers caution this is an ever-changing event, and estimates continue to change as more data are gathered.
For now, the model suggests Washington state will see peak strain on hospital resources about April 19 and an estimated 1,429 COVID-19 deaths statewide by July.
It projected 81,114 COVID-19 deaths nationwide by mid-July.
With the measures in place now, the state model does not project Washington exceeding total hospital bed capacity, though some facilities will be strained more than others. For intensive care units, it does predict a 96-bed shortage statewide by mid-April.
The state projection is in line with what local and state medical officials in Washington have been saying this week at various teleconferences, including a teleconference town hall Thursday evening hosted by U.S. Rep. Derek Kilmer of Washington’s 6th District.
That teleconference included Paul Pottinger, board certified physician and director of the Infectious Diseases and Tropical Medicine Clinic at UW Medical Center and Nathan Schlicher, M.D., president-elect of the Washington State Medical Association and regional medical director of quality assurance for the emergency departments at CHI Franciscan.
Pottinger and Schlicher both estimated King County might expect its coronavirus-related cases to crest in the next two to three weeks, and Pierce County a week after King. Both cautioned the situation remained in flux and warned it would get worse before getting better.
“Most will survive, but some will not,” Pottinger warned listeners, adding, “I do see us getting through this as long as people keep doing their part.”
While Schlicher praised the resilience of the health care workforce “working around the clock” in preparation for the rise in patients needed hospitalization, he compared this moment to another natural phenomenon familiar to coastal cities.
“We’re in the tsunami when the wave leaves the shore,” before coming back, he said.
Schlicher also acknowledged the critical shortage of personal protective equipment everywhere.
On that front, a bit of good news came Friday.
UFCW 21, which counts health care and grocery workers among its union member ranks, unveiled a new donation website and its first donation of more than 1,000 items of PPE to the Pierce County Emergency Operations Center.
Friday’s drop-off was the first, and the group expects to make future deliveries soon to other counties such as King, the hardest hit so far.
The website, originally announced to union members earlier this month, already “has been successful at connecting with people in Pierce County who want to donate their unused, still packaged masks, goggles and gowns,” according to a UFCW 21 statement issued Friday.
The union acknowledged that the donations will only go so far.
“In addition to the federal stockpile needing to be properly and immediately deployed, we all need industry to ramp up production and all large retailers who have supplies should be donating that as well.”
Those with unused PPE can go to suppliessaveliveswa.org or donation details and information on how to help. Donated supplies must be in unopened boxes, to be allocated to hospitals and first responders treating COVID-19 patients, according to the website.
This story was originally published March 27, 2020 at 3:28 PM.
