Coronavirus
Washington state has reached an “explosive” COVID-19 situation. What does that mean?
Public health experts from around Washington warned Friday evening that the state is “in an explosive situation,” according to a report released by the State Department of Health.
The report paints a grim picture of COVID-19 conditions in Washington. The state is in the early stages of a runaway outbreak, the experts said.
“Washington state is in the early stages of an exponential statewide outbreak that has zero chance of being reversed without changes to our collective behavior and policies to support that change,” the report warns. “This is a matter of utmost urgency.”
If transmission doesn’t slow soon, officials said, schools might not be able to reopen and further restrictions, even lockdowns, could be necessary.
How did Washington get here?
In March, Washington experienced one of the first outbreaks in the nation at the Life Care Center in Kirkland. The state responded quickly with shelter-in-place orders that kept the virus at low levels throughout the spring.
But as businesses reopened in June and people began socializing again, many without wearing masks, cases in Washington rapidly accelerated, with daily increases now “substantially higher” than the March peak, according to the report.
Infectious disease experts use the number labeled R to measure how fast a disease is spreading. The R-value describes how many more people one infected person is likely to infect.
For example, R=1 means that every sick person will infect on average one person. When R is less than 1, the disease is not spreading much and the outbreak can be controlled.
The report found western Washington’s R-value to be 1.54 and eastern Washington’s R-value to be 1.41. This means that cases could continue to nearly double if increased social distancing is not followed.
What happens if the outbreak continues to grow?
Hospitalizations in Washington are also increasing for all age groups, according to the report.
“As transmission moves from younger adults into older, more vulnerable, populations, we expect new hospitalizations and, eventually, deaths to trend up across the state,” the report says.
Although the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions are most at risk, recent studies have shown that the coronavirus can severely affect as many as 20% of young people.
Complications for young people can include lung scarring or heart damage, particularly if the person has a history of smoking or vaping. The 20-29 age group is currently driving the increase of positive cases in Washington.
What can Washington residents do to stop the spread?
First, wear a mask. Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, said Tuesday that if everyone wears a mask, the United States would have COVID-19 under control in four to eight weeks.
Try to limit interaction with others to the outdoors as much as possible. In indoor settings that recycle air, the virus can linger for several hours. Other guidance includes staying six feet from others, and washing your hands frequently.
The report noted that, in recent days, Yakima County has seen a greater decline in cases because of mask and distancing policies implemented there.
On Thursday, Gov. Jay Inslee announced revisions to gathering sizes for counties in Phase 3. He also banned live entertainment and said another stay-home order is possible if numbers continue to rise.
“Too many individual citizens, regardless of their age or their ethnicity, are simply not exercising the caution that is necessary if we are going to arrest this very, very dangerous rise of this pandemic,” he said at a virtual news conference.
Live, in-person entertainment that has already been banned in restaurants and bars will now be prohibited more broadly indoors and outdoors, including drive-in concerts. Gatherings in Phase 3 counties will be limited to 10 people, with the exception of spiritual services, weddings and funerals. The restrictions take effect Monday.
The News Tribune’s Alexis Krell contributed to this report.
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