How does this COVID-19 surge compare to earlier ones in Pierce County and Washington?
As Pierce County enters its third wave of COVID-19, cases have grown at an alarming rate, already outpacing total cases in the first eight months.
Deaths are a lagging indicator, following cases and hospitalization. So far, the third wave has accounted for 50 percent of all the county’s cases logged since March and nearly 28 percent of total COVID-19 deaths.
Here’s a closer look at the data:
Pierce County
COVID-19’s three surges in Pierce County reflect three major inflection points that have been noted in previous summaries this year from the health department: the March-April shutdown of schools and businesses, the Phase 2 reopenings beginning in early June, and vacations and social-holiday gatherings from July to now.
Cases and deaths
▪ From March through the end of April, Pierce County’s first surge, a total of 1,443 new cases and 51 deaths were reported, according to month-by-month totals provided to The News Tribune by the Tacoma-Pierce County Health Department on Nov. 18.
▪ The county’s second surge, roughly June through the end of August, the health department reported 4,782 new cases and 79 deaths.
▪ In the third wave, September through Nov. 18, the county has seen 6,756 new cases and 60 deaths.
Even if you add May’s figures to the first wave (508 cases and 26 deaths), the county’s third surge already has seen more cases than the first two surges combined. Deaths lag hospitalization rates and cases, so it’s still to be seen if the number of deaths will also outpace the first eight months of the pandemic.
April was the deadliest month in Pierce County in the pandemic, with 43 confirmed COVID-19 deaths, followed by August with 37. November so far has had 17 deaths.
There are an estimated 4,155 cases still active in the county, according to the health department’s data, which is about 31 percent of all total cases logged since March.
Testing
In Pierce County, three positivity rate peaks have appeared in the waves of surges, with a 7.2 percent positivity rate in early May, the first data point offered by Pierce County, then another peak at 6.8 percent mid-July, followed by another 6.8 percent positivity rate in early November.
At the same time, average number of daily tests has climbed. Using the same time frames as the peak positivity rates — in early May, 331 tests were the average daily tally, 1,500 in mid-July and 2,500 in early November.
Hospitalizations
While the state counts actual case numbers for hospitalizations, local health department data track the percentage of cases reported each week who were hospitalized at some point in their illness.
In the pandemic’s first week in March, the bulk of confirmed cases in the county were hospitalized, for a rate of 75 percent.
For the week of Oct. 18, the most recent week with complete hospitalization data listed on the health department’s website, 8 percent of weekly cases were registered as hospitalized at some point in their illness.
Total hospital occupancy, which offers insight into capacity at hospitals in Pierce County, has stayed roughly in a range between 70 percent and 80 percent occupancy, with a one-day spike Oct. 3 of 93.5 percent.
Nov. 17, the latest tally, showed total bed occupancy at 77.5 percent.
The percentage of hospital beds occupied by COVID-19 patients, according to the data, also has stayed fairly consistent, with occasional spikes, at between roughly 3 percent and 6.5 percent.
In November, the percentage started to rise., hitting 8.3 percent Nov. 15.
Earlier this week, both MultiCare and CHI Franciscan told The News Tribune their hospital admissions of COVID-19 patients were on a notable upswing, with CHI Franciscan seeing an 89 percent increase since Nov. 1 and MultiCare seeing a 41 percent increase in the same time frame.
State
The first two surges both had clearly definable peaks in statewide case numbers, deaths and positive test results. The current surge has yet to peak, but confirmed and preliminary metrics show numbers are on their way to match or exceed previous peaks — with the exception of deaths.
Cases and deaths
Statewide cases during this current surge are more than the previous two, but some of that can be attributed to increased testing.
Confirmed cases in the first surge (March-April) were 14,707. In the second surge (June-August), 52,841 cases were added.
In the current third surge (September through Nov. 18), the state has seen 60,548 new confirmed cases. Several all-time daily highs were recorded just in the last week.
As of Wednesday, total state cases stood at 135,424.
In the first surge, deaths peaked at an average daily rate of 29 and then dropped to an average low of five in early June.
In the second surge, average daily deaths peaked at 17 and then dropped to an average low of three in September.
In the current surge, deaths statewide were averaging eight per day in late October — the most recent date with confirmed data. Preliminary data shows that number holding steady into early November.
Testing
The number of daily COVID-19 tests has steadily increased since the beginning of the pandemic. Preliminary data shows 30,217 tests were conducted on Nov. 9 alone — a record high.
Meanwhile, positivity rates — the number of tests coming back positive for the coronavirus — have risen and fallen with each peak.
During the first surge, average positive test rates peaked at around 9% statewide.
In the second surge, they peaked around 5.7%.
In early September, the average positive rate bottomed out at 3%.
In the current surge, the most recent confirmed positive rate was 8.3% on Nov. 3, and preliminary data shows it reaching an average 8.6% on Nov. 12.
Hospitalizations
During the first wave, statewide hospitalizations — based on admittance date — peaked at an average of 78 per day.
In the second wave, they peaked at 45 admissions per day.
In the current third wave, they were averaging 44 per day according to confirmed data from late October. Using preliminary data, the average rate has increased to 62 per day by mid-November.
COVID-19 data can be delayed and even real-time data can lag behind a peak or fall in numbers. In addition, a two- to three-week time lag can occur from day of infection with the coronavirus to when someone enters a hospital, state health officials said Wednesday.
This story was originally published November 20, 2020 at 5:00 AM.
