Over half of Washington counties at highest COVID risk before Christmas, data show

Daily COVID-19 cases in a majority of Washington’s counties have reached a “tipping point” before Christmas, according to Harvard University data.

Researchers are mapping coronavirus risk levels by state and county by the seven-day average of new cases per 100,000 people. As of Dec. 17, at least 22 of Washington’s 39 counties are in the “red” zone, with 25 or more coronavirus cases per 100,000 people.

The Harvard Global Health Institute released a map that uses four colors to show the risk level in different counties: green, yellow, orange and red. Red means that area is at a “tipping point” and stay-at-home orders are “necessary.”

The Washington state Department of Health reported 1,681 new coronavirus cases and 89 deaths on Wednesday, The News Tribune reported. Health officials are also saying that the COVID-19 curve may be flattening in the state but deaths are increasing.

As of Tuesday, 14.1% of adult acute care hospital beds were occupied by coronavirus patients statewide, which is above the 10% threshold recommended by the state health department. In the ICU, 22.9% of adult beds were occupied by COVID-19 patients.

Washington has more than 206,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases and more than 3,000 deaths as of Dec. 17, according to the Washington state Department of Health.

There are more than 17 million confirmed coronavirus cases in the U.S. and more than 309,000 deaths as of Dec. 17, according to Johns Hopkins University.

County breakdown

Franklin County and Benton County have among the highest per capita case rates in the state as of Dec. 17, according to the risk level dashboard. The rates were 89.3 and 69.7 daily new cases per 100,000 people, respectively.

Yakima County also has a high per capita rate, with 58.9 cases per 100,000 people.

Walla Walla County has 54 cases per 100,000 people, while Asotin County has 52.7 new daily cases per 100,000 people, Harvard researchers said.

Pierce County is also in the “red” level with 38.5 cases per 100,000 people, the data found, while Whatcom County is in the “orange” level with 12.6 cases for every 100,000 residents. Thurston County also is in the “orange” level with 16.8 new cases per 100,000 people.

Holiday risk

The Georgia Institute of Technology released a map that helps assess the risk of at least one person testing positive for COVID-19 at your holiday event.

A gathering of 50 people in Pierce and Whatcom counties has a risk level of 52% and 38% respectively — reflecting the probability of at least one coronavirus-positive person will show up. Thurston County has a risk of 35% for an event of the same size.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious diseases expert, said that travel advisories and restrictions may be required during the holiday season to stop the spread of coronavirus.

“What we expect, unfortunately, as we go for the next couple of weeks into December, is that we might see a surge superimposed on the surge we are already in,” Fauci said in an interview with NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Nov. 29. “I don’t want to frighten people, except to say it is not too late to do something about this.”

Despite the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention advising against travel for Thanksgiving, more than 9 million Americans did so at airports in the week before the holiday and the weekend after, according to CNBC.

The CDC warns that holiday gatherings with people who don’t live in your household can increase the risk of spreading COVID-19.

“As cases, hospitalizations, and deaths continue to increase across the United States, the safest way to celebrate the winter holidays is to celebrate at home with people who live with you,” the CDC wrote.

This story was originally published December 17, 2020 at 2:41 PM.