Why did Mark Lindquist lose the primary election to Mary Robnett? For one thing, Tacoma rejected him

The formula for Democrats to win Pierce County elections is a closely guarded secret, seasoned with heavy doses of math, but one ingredient is non-negotiable: A Democrat running countywide must win the city of Tacoma by a sizable margin.

In Tuesday’s primary election, incumbent county Prosecutor Mark Lindquist, a Democrat, lost the city.

That factor, coupled with a muscular run by challenger Mary Robnett in the surrounding suburbs, represents what might be the strongest statistical driver of Robnett’s victory. Countywide, she won 85,237 votes compared to Lindquist’s 67,852, equating to a margin of 55.7 percent to 44.3 percent.

“Jaw-dropping,” said former Tacoma Mayor Bill Baarsma. “It’s extraordinary.”

Data from the election results reveal the breadth of the win. The county electorate includes all or part of eight state legislative districts. Robnett won every one of them.

In the conservative Second District, which includes Graham and unincorporated areas in the eastern portion of the county, Robnett, who ran as a nonpartisan, scored like a conventional Republican, winning by a margin of 59 percent to 41 percent.

She won the Puyallup-South Hill area (the 25th District) and the Auburn-area 31st District by similar margins of about 57 percent to 43 percent. In the suburban 28th District, which includes Lakewood and University Place, her margin was 55-45. In the 26th District, which includes Gig Harbor and portions of the Key Peninsula, she was ahead 54-46.

However, the Tacoma results tell a critical aspect of the story. The city is rich with Democratic voters. In districts 27 and 29, the heart of the city’s electorate, and a theoretical stronghold for Lindquist, Robnett carried 55 percent and 52 percent, respectively.

In short, she won the city, taking solid majorities of Democratic votes away from her opponent.

Democratic state Rep. Laurie Jinkins, who represents the 27th District and backed Robnett, said she was as surprised as anyone when she caught the first glimpse of Tuesday’s results.

“I was speechless for a whole minute,” she said.

The Tacoma results set a high bar for Lindquist in the upcoming general election. To prevail, he’ll need a better performance in the city.

Asked whether a Democrat could win a countywide race without winning Tacoma, political observers gave similar answers.

“I would say that’s really, really hard,” said Dave McMullan, chairman of the Pierce County Republican Party, which did not endorse either candidate in the race. “My initial opinion would be no. Tacoma is the deepest blue in the county. The rest of it is different shades of purple. For a Democrat to win, you need to win Tacoma.”

Baarsma’s answer was shorter.

“You’ve got to win Tacoma, and you’ve gotta win it big,” he said.

Baarsma, a historian who refrained from endorsing any candidate in the race, has won his share of local elections, and researched many more. He said Tuesday’s results in the prosecutor’s race reminded him of 1976, when Democratic county commissioner George Sheridan was unexpectedly crushed by insurgent candidate Joe Stortini, who later became county executive.

That was then. What about 2018? How did Baarsma account for Lindquist’s weakness in the city?

“Two iconic Democrats endorsed Mary: Laurie Jinkins and (state Senator) Jeannie Darneille,” he said. “That’s gotta mean something. The 27th District Democrats endorsed her.”

Jinkins pointed to another factor cited by many analysts.

“If you look across the state of Washington, women did really, really well,” she said. “I think we’re moving into a space politically where women are trusted to be more foresighted and ethical. And I think in that race, when it’s compounded with some issues around overreach and questioning of ethical standards, that’s a place where women are generally considered very strong.”

Conventional political wisdom in countywide races features a mirrored set of strategies. For Republicans, it’s a matter of winning big in the suburban cities and unincorporated areas, and limiting the effect of Democratic majorities in Tacoma.

For Democrats, it’s the opposite: run up the score in Tacoma, and stay competitive in the suburbs.

County Executive Bruce Dammeier, elected in 2016, set the most recent template for Republican wins at the county level. His campaign scored heavily in the suburbs of Puyallup and Lakewood. His opponent, Democrat Rick Talbert, won strong majorities in the Tacoma districts, gaining roughly 60 percent of the vote.

It wasn’t enough.

“Rick couldn’t get the margin,” Baarsma said.

That same year, Democrat Pat McCarthy, former county executive, campaigned successfully for state auditor. She won statewide, and she also won Pierce County.

A deep dive into local precinct results shows McCarthy setting the standard for Democratic wins. Outside Tacoma, she gained a respectable 46 percent of the vote, behind Republican Mark Miloscia, but not too far behind.

Within the two key Tacoma districts, however, McCarthy amassed big majorities, clearing the 62 percent threshold — slightly more than Talbert. The numbers provided a cushion that allowed McCarthy to carry the county.

Robnett didn’t match those levels, but her strength in the suburbs gave her a different kind of cushion, despite running as a nonpartisan.

McMullan, the local GOP chairman, said both Robnett and Lindquist sought the local party endorsement, but leaders chose to remain neutral; there was no Republican to endorse.

He said he didn’t expect Tuesday’s results.

“I was surprised how it turned out,” he said. “That spread surprised me. I don’t have an answer, except to me she was out there working.”

The primary didn’t decide anything. The candidates will square off again in the general election.

Asked about the primary numbers and the effect of losing votes in Tacoma, Alex Hays, Lindquist’s campaign consultant, declined to comment, saying he couldn’t address an analysis he hadn’t seen. Told the analysis focused on vote margins in Tacoma, and whether a Democrat could win without winning the city, Hays again demurred.

“Based on your description,” Hays said, “I can say that one obvious way for Mark to win the general election is to remind Democrats of his record, and to point out the extreme issues that plague his opponent but have yet to be reported.”

Lindquist, also asked to comment on his campaign plan for the weeks ahead, offered a brief statement, largely echoing his standard message.

“I’m going to continue to focus on what we are doing to make the community safer. Specifically, protecting elders, reducing gang violence and getting career criminals off the streets,” he said. “Additionally, there’s our lawsuit against Big Pharma and our innovative alternatives to prosecution such as mental health court. Based on the reaction I receive from community groups, I believe these public safety initiatives matter to people all over the county regardless of geography and party.”

Asked about the effect of prevailing in Tacoma, Robnett said the results reflected the voters’ desire for change.

“I expected to do well (in Tacoma),” she said. “I wanted to pull more votes than Mark. I was pleasantly surprised by the margin. As more and more voters become more and more informed about the issues, I expect to do better and better.

“I won every legislative district, and I think that shows Pierce County is ready for a change. I think Pierce County’s going to remain ready for a change.”