Full effect of federal cuts yet to be felt in Western WA, but other layoffs adding up
If it feels like there have been more layoffs lately, and not just in the federal sector, you’re not wrong.
And the full effects have yet to be measured.
Meanwhile, fallout from the federal workforce reduction continues, but one economist predicts effects could be “very mild” locally if all else holds, though uncertainty of federal contracts remains.
The first eight weeks of 2025 show statewide weekly initial claims with the state Department of Employment Security peaking so far in Week 6 at 7,450, and the lowest amount at 5,531 in Weeks 2 and 8.
Last year, the highest number of statewide weekly initial claims in the first eight weeks was registered in Weeks 2 and 3, with 6,815 and 6,835 claims respectively, and the lowest amount in Week 7 at 4,910.
The year 2023 was even lower, with the highest number of weekly initial claims in the first eight weeks occurring Week 8, at 5,685, and the lowest number of claims filed in that period was Week 7, with 4,754.
Announced cuts in the past few months include closures of Associated Materials in Fife (150 jobs) and area Advance Auto Parts stores (100 jobs). Other cuts have included Starbucks in Seattle (612 jobs), Cheesecake Factory in Seattle (119 jobs) and Warner Bros. Discovery in Kirkland (131 jobs), among others, along with more than 2,000 involving Boeing.
In its monthly report released on March 12, ESD said that the state’s economy decreased by an estimated 1,100 jobs (seasonally adjusted) in January 2025, and the monthly unemployment rate decreased slightly to 4.3%.
“The state’s unemployment rate, at a high of 4.6% in May 2024, has slowly decreased the past six months and is .3 percentage points lower than it was one year ago,” the department said in the March 12 release.
“Washington’s labor market is still relatively strong, but growth has slowed over the past several months,” said Anneliese Vance-Sherman, chief labor economist at ESD, in the March 12 release.
The recent federal government layoffs and several private-industry layoffs won’t show up in the state’s labor market numbers for two or three months, Vance-Sherman added.
““We are aware of several announced layoffs in the works — both in the public and private sectors,” Vance-Sherman said. “It’s worth noting that Boeing layoffs (2,595 layoffs, most beginning Jan. 17, 2025) are unlikely to show up in traditional employment numbers until the February numbers are published in a couple weeks, and federal layoff numbers will not show up until the March report.”
Federal worker cuts
Paul Turek is the state regional economist focusing on King and Pierce counties. Turek said in response to questions from The News Tribune on March 12 that state accounting of federal job cuts may be short of the real total.
“Information we have available is on job cuts that largely get expressed through federal workers filing claims,” he said via email. “This is probably a lesser volume of individuals impacted since it won’t include those who have opted into retirement as a result of policy procedures.”
He noted he had no information “at this time” on the effects of grant freezes in the area, as cited previously by workers in the region.
Federal workers speaking about their job losses to reporters have described canceled contracts and grant freezes eliminating their positions. At least one company, Bremerton-based SAFE Boats International, has detailed the upheaval with funding streams tied to Ukraine cutting into their work on patrol boats for the country.
“All this is a work in progress since it takes time for the results to trickle into the job numbers and reporting periods. Also, the policy procedure is ongoing and multifaceted in terms of executive orders, federal legislation and legal issues,” Turek said.
He added that “the general consensus looks to hold at the local level in that the cuts by themselves should have at most a very mild negative impact on the local economy.”
“Most of government employment at local levels exists at the state and local government employment levels,” he added, but cautioned, “This statement is of course based on the assumption that all other things ... remain the same.”
He also acknowledged that things “look to be changing at lightening speed, so one needs to take this into account when looking into the future.”
Joint Base Lewis-McChord, Turek noted, is another factor to consider, “but given how the policy changes are being meted out, they might actually become a beneficiary.” Turek did not offer specifics.
This month, ESD released the first summary of initial unemployment claims filed by federal workers in Washington state. Among the top 10 counties where affected federal employees live, King County was No. 1 with 207 claims. Pierce County was listed at No. 2 with 82 claims, followed by Kitsap County with 59, Clark County with 54 and Spokane County with 47.
Pierce County is third in the state for total numbers of federal workers employed, with 11,389 (civilian), behind Kitsap County (21,145) and King County (18,917).
Previous reporting from The News Tribune contributed to this report.
This story was originally published March 13, 2025 at 5:00 AM.
