Turnout in recent Pierce County primary smashed records. What motivated people to vote?
In one word, voter turnout in Pierce County’s recently certified primary election was “unprecedented.”
That’s not my description. It’s Julie Anderson’s, and as Pierce County auditor, she speaks with some authority on the matter.
Nearly 52% of registered Pierce County voters cast a ballot on or before Aug. 4. That’s the highest presidential year primary turnout in nearly 30 years.
For perspective, 1992 and 1996 came close; both years recorded primary turnouts of just over 48%. But more recently primary turnout in Pierce County has wallowed in the 30% range, with 2016 providing the low-water mark of 31.7%.
As usual, Anderson’s office produced a turnout forecast in anticipation of this year’s primary. It foresaw a turnout between 38 and 40% — or 12 to 14% lower than where the voting dust settled.
The underestimate wasn’t an outlier. Local political consultants of various stripes all told The News Tribune they were surprised by the final outcome, and turnout skyrocketed across the state — not just in Pierce County.
So what the heck happened?
According to many of those same consultants (and others who know a lot more about elections than this columnist), the answer is complicated, taking into account multiple factors, candidates, variables and remaining unknowns.
For years we’ve lamented low voter turnout, particularly in August primaries.
Turns out, all we needed to get voters engaged was backlash to a uniquely unfit president and the party that made him possible mixed with the crushing coronavirus pandemic that infringes on people’s God-given right to breathe freely out of their mouths.
Voila.
Who knew it was so easy?
But I digress.
According to Anderson, turnout isn’t the only metric to gauge the pronounced spike in voter participation.
On Tuesday, the day Pierce County’s primary election was officially certified, Anderson noted that the county is also “setting records and achieving historic highs in voter registration as well as … the number of ballots that are being processed.”
The “very, very large turnout,” Anderson believes, is “a clear indication of what we are going to see in November.”
It’s not an official forecast, but Anderson said the auditor’s office is preparing for general election turnout of 90-percent.
If that comes to pass, it also would smash records.
In 2008, Barack Obama’s first run for president saw Pierce County voter turnout exceed 81% — making for the highest general election turnout in the last 30 years.
In 2016, when Donald Trump was elected, Pierce County turnout hovered around 75%.
In Anderson’s opinion, there are a number of reasons why 2020 primary turnout broke records and the general election appears poised to do the same.
For starters, there were “lots of competitive races,” Anderson said, with “candidates spending money.”
Perhaps more importantly, the Pierce County auditor said “all the events of 2020” — from the contentious presidential election, COVID-19 and the Black Lives Matter movement — have contributed to an increase in interpersonal political engagement.
In other words, voters are talking, they’re active and they’re energized.
“Between federal politics and what’s happening right here at home, people are unusually focused and engaged with what’s happening in their country and their local towns and taking some responsibility for it,” Anderson said.
Republican political consultant Alex Hays was more specific in his assessment of the factors that contributed to the unusually high primary turnout.
While Hays was also quick to note that the turnout spike spanned the state, in Pierce County he singled out two races as primary drivers.
The jam packed 10th Congressional District race, featuring former Mayor Marilyn Strickland, former state Rep. Kristine Reeves and current state Rep. Beth Doglio, clearly helped ratchet up voter turnout, Hays said.
Meanwhile, Loren Culp’s run for governor — in staunch opposition to Jay Inslee and his response to the COVID-19 pandemic — was another key factor, Hays said.
“Between those two, I think that’s the whole story there,” Hays said.
Interestingly, while Hays also expects general election turnout to be high, he’s not expecting it to shatter records. He believes the main reasons primary election turnout was so high is because particular races attracted voters who would normally wait for the general election to cast a ballot.
That said, Hays does expect Referendum 90, a conservative-led effort to repeal a law mandating sex education in public schools, to drive people to vote this November, “probably in a way that’s favorable to Republicans,” he said.
At least initially, Nic Van Putten, a political consultant with Progressive Strategies NW, acknowledged that he was “shocked by the extent” of this year’s jump in primary voter turnout.
However, after taking some time to dive into the data, Van Putten observed that Washington is “not alone in registering high turnout right now.”
Other states with partial or all-mail voting — like Hawaii and Arizona — also have experienced jumps in voter turnout, he said.
“Ultimately, I think it’s safe to say that turnout is up nationally this year, and that vote by mail states are probably insulated from the potential damper on turnout that the pandemic could cause for in-person voting,” Van Putten said.
Van Putten also said that while there’s no “single, clear answer” to explain the turnout spike, the increase doesn’t appear to be driven by a single party.
Heading into November, both parties are raring to go, for a host of reasons.
“I think we can say with confidence that some element of the national political environment is motivating people, but whether that’s their tribal aversion to the other party, their ideological support for their own party, their stalwart act of resistance to the threats to the integrity of our elections, or something else entirely is beyond my ability to say from the data,” Van Putten said.
This story was originally published August 19, 2020 at 10:23 AM.
