Thanksgiving meals may be pricier this year, report says. Here’s why COVID is to blame

Thanksgiving is just around the corner, and the holiday meal may cost you a little more than last year.

The price of foods commonly served during traditional Thanksgiving meals have increased, making the holiday meal 10.9% more expensive than last year, according to a report from analytics firm Mintec.

Mintec defines the main Thanksgiving meal as having meat, vegetables, bread, nuts and pecan pie.

The firm attributes the increase in the main meal price to the rising costs of three foods: pork, turkey and potatoes.

Why are prices up? You can blame shortages and industry disruptions due to COVID-19, Mintec said.

Turkey production was down 5% year-over-year in August, indicating that Thanksgiving production would likely be low amid high demand, according to the report. Turkey prices were up 14.9% in October, compared to the same month in 2019.

Pork prices are also up, due in part to supply shortages and disruptions caused by COVID-19, the report said.

Several meat processing plants across the U.S. were slammed with COVID-19 cases, prompting shutdowns — and in turn, meat shortages — earlier this year.

Increased exports to China and Canada also helped to drive up pork prices, according to the report. Ham prices increased 1% year-over-year in October, with pork loin surging a whopping 16.8%.

When it comes to side dishes, potato prices are soaring due to “record potato sales in the US retail market,” Mintec reported.

Potato prices were up 19% year-over-year in October after bottoming out in June, according to the report. COVID-19 restrictions caused potato prices to plummet in May and June as lockdowns weakened demand from the restaurant industry, Mintec said.

As restrictions eased, schools and restaurants revived demand and caused the price of potatoes to rebound. The higher prices were supported by lower supply — the North America Potato Market News projects the 2020 potato output to be down 5% compared to 2019, Mintec reported.

The good news for consumers? Dessert prices have plummeted, according to the report.

Mintec’s dessert index — which is derived from the prices of sugar, pecans, vanilla and butter — is down from last year. The prices of pecans, vanilla and butter each fell substantially this year, with sugar prices seeing a slight increase.

While the falling price of desserts isn’t significant enough to drag down the price of the whole Thanksgiving meal, it is good news for those with a sweet tooth — especially pecan pie fans.

This story was originally published November 17, 2020 at 10:10 AM with the headline "Thanksgiving meals may be pricier this year, report says. Here’s why COVID is to blame."