Hurricane experts make forecast for 2026 season. There’s a change from last year
As the 2026 hurricane season approaches, forecasters are predicting a quieter Atlantic with fewer storms.
This week, hurricane forecasters at Colorado State University predicted 13 named storms, with six strengthening to hurricanes and two reaching major hurricane strength with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater.
Last year, the forecast predicted 17 named storms.
“The team predicts that 2026 hurricane activity will be about 75% of the average season from 1991–2020. By comparison, 2025’s hurricane activity was about 105% of the average season,” CSU said in a statement about the forecast.
Hurricane Melissa, which made landfall as a Category 5 storm in Jamaica was last year’s most devastating storm, resulting in nearly $9 billion in damage and causing 95 deaths across the Caribbean, forecasters noted.
In March, AccuWeather predicted 11 to 16 named storms for 2026. Both predictions say El Niño, a recurring climate pattern that is characterized by warmer than normal water is to explain for a slower season.
El Niño can increase high westerly winds across the Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic, according to Colorado State forecasters.
“These winds result in increased vertical wind shear which is unfavorable for Atlantic hurricane formation and intensification,” the forecasters said.
Here is CSU’s probability of major hurricanes making landfall by region:
- 32% for the entire U.S. coastline
- 15% for the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula
- 20% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas
- 35% for the Caribbean
No hurricanes hit the U.S. last year. But researchers urge coastal residents to stay prepared.
“It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season for you,” said Professor Michael Bell.
The CSU team will issue updates to their forecast on June 10, July 8 and Aug. 5.
Hurricane season officially begins June 1 and ends Nov. 30.
This story was originally published April 10, 2026 at 8:50 AM with the headline "Hurricane experts make forecast for 2026 season. There’s a change from last year."