Will Washington’s primary be a big night for Bernie Sanders — or will it end his campaign?
Washington’s quiet primary campaign has the potential to reverberate loudly Tuesday, as voters are poised to have a big say about whether Bernie Sanders’ presidential campaign is surging or fizzling.
A decisive Washington win for the Vermont senator — which polls had suggested prior to former Vice President Joe Biden’s recent surge in other states — would be fresh evidence of Sanders’ strength not only in Washington but in the West. Biden has not won a state west of Texas.
If Sanders wins Michigan Tuesday, where most of the media attention will be focused, a Washington victory hours later would likely be seen as important momentum.
“A big win in Washington could help revitalize a Sanders campaign seeking new life,” said Benjamin Brunjes, assistant professor of political science at the Evans School of Public Policy & Governance at the University of Washington.
But a decisive Biden win would be “a blow” to Sanders said State Sen. Sam Hunt, D-Olympia, “because everybody says Bernie’s got to win.”
Sanders is expected to keep going with his trademark passion, no matter the result. “Sanders supporters rarely look at a loss as a loss. They will be determined to fight,” said Monisha Harrell, a Seattle-based Democratic political consultant who has not endorsed anyone.
So far the Washington primary has been almost hard to see. Voters have been mailing in their ballots since last month, and in recent days, fear of the coronavirus has kept many people in their homes while keeping campaigners away.
“People are not paying that much attention. It’s like we’ve forgotten we have a primary,,” said Margaret O’Mara, a University of Washington professor whose books include “Pivotal Tuesdays: Four Elections that Shaped the 20th Century.”
Six states will vote Tuesday. Michigan is the biggest prize, not only because it offers 125 Democratic convention delegates but because Sanders upset HIllary Clinton there four years ago. In the last few days, he has spent almost all his campaign time in the state. Washington’s 89 delegates are the second-biggest haul of the night. Mississippi, Missouri, Idaho and North Dakota are also voting.
Latest polling shows Biden gaining strength in Washington. A KING5 News poll taken March 4 to 6 showed Biden inching ahead of Sanders, 36% to 35%. Most of the poll, though, was taken before Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Massachusetts, dropped out March 5.
While Warren has not endorsed a candidate, her liberal views are more aligned with those of Sanders.
Warren will remain on the Washington ballot, along with 12 other Democrats and a line for uncommitted delegates. All votes will be counted, though only Biden, Sanders and Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, D-Hawaii, remain in the race. At the end of last week, 30% of ballots had been returned.
Sanders has a strong organization here, particularly among younger voters.
McClatchy and South Puget Sound Community College hosted a panel featuring four of those voters Sunday evening.
Adam Andres, 31, who is studying architecture, engineering and construction, liked Warren, but once she left the race, went for Sanders. Biden, he found, is full of ideas “we’ve used in the second half of the 20th century. We have a new set of problems.”
Andres, an Olympia resident, liked Sanders’ ideas.
“Do I want a more fair economic system? I do,” Andres said.
Andres Tamayo, 20, a screenwriting student from Pullman, liked the senator’s plan to provide free tuition at public colleges and universities. “It will keep students coming back,” he said.
Faith Nitz, 20, who plans a career in communications, was torn between Biden and Sanders.
Biden’s plan to improve the Affordable Care Act has appeal to the Olympia resident, but so does Sanders’ proposal to make higher education more affordable. “I’m struggling with the question of what I value more,” she said.
A.J. Edwards, 23, is a military veteran now studying mathematics who voted for Sanders two weeks ago. But now he is interested in Biden.
“It’s really important to me that we win the election,” he said. “I really don’t want to be in a Republican country.” He worries about the fate of abortion law and Supreme Court appointments.
The quandary for the campaigns is how to best reach all these voters Tuesday. There’s little outward evidence that there’s even a campaign, largely because it’s a mail-in vote, and partly because people are saying home because of the coronavirus.
The virus “does present some real challenges,” said Rep. Pramila Jayapal, D-Washington, a Sanders Washington co-chair. Going door to door and holding rallies has become difficult.
Even if the virus had not spread, the mail-in ballot “takes away that in-person energy,” O’Mara said.
Then again, she added, “I appreciate not having to stand in line.”
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