Could Pierce County Council turn Democratic for the first time since 2004?
There will be a fresh Pierce County Council in 2021, but the primary has shown it’s a coin-toss on whether there will be a Democrat or Republican majority.
Four of Pierce County Council’s seven seats are contested: District 2, 3, 4, and 6. All are open races, and there’s a chance that the council could turn blue for the first time in 17 years.
Council members Pam Roach, Republican of District 2; Jim McCune, Republican of District 3; Connie Ladenburg, Democrat of District 4; and Doug Richardson, Republican of District 6 are leaving the council at the end of 2020.
The current Pierce County Council holds three Democrats and four Republicans, so a single seat could flip the entire legislative body.
Those remaining on the council include Dave Morell, R-District 1; Marty Campbell, D-District 5; and Derek Young, D-District 7.
The News Tribune spoke to Republican consultant Alex Hays, Progressive Strategies NW’s Ben Anderstone and Dorian Waller at Tacoma-based Archway Consulting Group about the races and what to expect in November.
District 6
All the political consultants agreed the race for Seat 6 is the most interesting to watch.
“This is the race to pay attention to,” Hays said. “If there is a change in the status quo, it comes down to this race.”
Current council Chairman Doug Richardson has represented Lakewood, DuPont, Steilacoom, Parkland, Joint Base Lewis-McChord and Anderson and Ketron islands since 2012.
The seat recently has been held by similar moderate Republicans with military experience.
Lakewood Deputy Mayor Jason Whalen fits that bill. He served in the Army in Germany as a field artillery officer, graduated law school and set up a private practice. He was first elected to Lakewood’s City Council in 2010.
Whalen narrowly lost to his Democratic opponent, Jani Hitchens, in the County Council primary earlier this month.
Hitchens won 50.63 percent of the vote, or 12,483 votes, while Whalen brought in 49.18 percent, or 12,125 votes, in finalized Pierce County election results.
Hays said he thought Whalen would have done better, given his background. He believes Whalen will do better in the general election because there are more military voters who turn out for a “general election bump.”
This race shows that candidates matter, Waller said. He believes it’s a close race because Hitchens doesn’t look like previous incumbents. The demographic of District 6 is becoming younger and bluer.
“The voters are wanting to vote out long-standing incumbents and vote in younger candidates, people of color and also women,” Waller said.
Anderstone said a potential flip has been years in the making. He points to recent large races, including when Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump by 12 points in District 6 in the 2016 presidential election. He believes the district has always been fairly competitive.
There were varying opinions on what will happen to District 6 in November, but Waller, Hays and Anderstone all agreed the seat would be influenced by larger races.
Hays predicts one state race in District 6 could sway voters more toward Whalen.
In the race for state senator in the 28th Legislative District, T’wina Nobles, a Democrat, inched ahead of incumbent Republican Steve O’Ban, with 50.21 percent of the vote, according to the final polling data.
While Nobles narrowly leads, Hays believes that race will see five to 10 times more funding than the County Council seat and bring more voters.
Hays thinks Republicans will clinch the state Senate and County Council seats with higher turnout.
“In this jurisdiction, higher turnout probably favors the Republican,” he said.
Beyond state races, Hays said political attention is elsewhere. Everyone is paying attention to the presidential race, and there is almost always a down-ticket impact.
“There is this sad inverse proportion of attention, where the government that has the most impact on you, people pay little attention to,” Hays said.
There has been increased political polarization, making many become single-party voters, Anderstone said. He looks at the presidential election to gauge the temperature of voters.
The down-ticket impact of President Donald Trump has not helped Washington Republicans, Anderstone said. Republicans held the state Senate since 2014 but lost the majority in 2018.
“Trump has been toxic in college-educated areas,” he said.
The Pierce County Council has moved from a 5-2 Republican majority in 2015 to a current majority of 4-3.
““That blue shift makes the Council more consistent with Pierce County as a whole, which is slightly more blue,” Anderstone said.
Waller said those in the middle who aren’t a fan of what’s happening in D.C. have been emboldened to vote for Democrats.
“I think purple voters who don’t follow party lines — who follow more on issues — they are tired of everything that is going on and they subconsciously blame D.C. leadership,” Waller said.
For the August Primary, Pierce County’s voter turnout was nearly 52 percent. The Pierce County Auditor’s Office said this was the highest primary voter turnout since before 1992.
District 2, 3 and 4
The other three Pierce County Council races are “getting close to being sewed up,” Waller said.
“Done deal,” Hays said. “They’re not going to be that surprising.”
Primary results for District 2’s Hans Zieger and Sarah Rumbaugh are likely going to look the same as the general election, Waller said. State senator Zieger won with 55 percent of the vote to Rumbaugh’s 44 percent in the district that encompasses Puyallup, Sumner and Fife. Council member Roach, who represents District 2, announced her retirement last year.
“I don’t think she has the same name recognition and Hans Zeiger does,” Waller said. “County Council races are generally all name recognition.”
Hays, who is advising Zeiger, agreed and added that the state senator’s ability to reach across the political aisle attracted voters across the political spectrum. Zeiger has broken the record of fundraising for any Pierce County Council seat.
In District 3, current Republican council member McCune’s assistant Amy Cruver carried 42 percent of the vote. In the general election for the district representing Eatonville and Roy, she will likely run against Joe Zaichkin, another Republican, who won 21.5 percent.
Former Tacoma City Council member Ryan Mello, a Democrat, will face off against independent University Place council member Javier Figueroa for District 4, which represents West Tacoma and University Place. Council member and Democrat Ladenburg currently represents this district.
While the results were close against the two in the primary, 30 percent and 29 percent respectively, consultants agree that the split Democratic vote left Mello looking more vulnerable than he is. Mello has broken campaign records for a Pierce County Council seat, according to PDC records since 2008. As of Aug. 18, his campaign has raised more than $107,000.
Mello won against two other Democratic candidates: Tim Farrell with 15 percent and Preston Anderson with 25 percent of the vote. Anderstone said he isn’t worried about Mello losing.
“That’s an extremely Democratic district that has gotten even more blue since the last election,” the progressive consultant said.
This story was originally published August 20, 2020 at 5:00 AM.
