When will midterm election results be final? Depends on where you live, officials say

Millions of Americans are heading to the polls today to cast their ballots in the midterm elections, which will determine which party will control Congress.

But due to a variety of factors — including the time it will take to count mail-in ballots and the possibility for run-off elections in some states — the full election results may not be known by this evening, according to officials and experts. In addition, depending on the order in which ballots are counted, early results in battleground states may paint a misleading picture.

The 2020 election marked a change in the way many Americans choose to vote. Public safety concerns related to the COVID-19 pandemic contributed to a large shift towards mail-in voting, according to a report by the U.S. Election Assistance Commission. The total number of mail-in ballots in 2020 was more than double the number submitted in the 2016 election.

This trend toward voting early by mail is expected to continue in this year’s election. Over 24 million mail-in ballots had been submitted as of Nov. 7, according to the University of Florida’s U.S. Elections Project.

Much like in 2020, these mail-in ballots are expected to take longer to tabulate in certain states because different states have different requirements for processing early and absentee ballots, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.

Some states, like Arizona and Florida, can begin processing and counting ballots before Nov. 8, while other states, like New Hampshire and Alabama, cannot begin processing until Election Day and cannot begin counting until polls officially close, according to the conference.

Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — three states with closely followed competitive elections — can only start opening and counting ballots on Election Day, according to the conference, which could result in counting delays.

“Election officials in these states have begged their state legislatures for increased flexibility over the past few years and have been repeatedly rebuffed, including by many legislators who criticized slow counting in 2020 or backed claims that the vote count showed evidence of fraud,” according to the Brennan Center for Justice.

In 2020, the majority of mail-in ballots went for Democrats, while day-of votes tended to favor Republicans in battleground states. If a similar phenomenon occurs this year, some officials warn that a “red mirage,” or what appears to be a landslide for Republicans, may occur earlier on election night as mail-in ballots take longer to process, according to Axios.

Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are three states that will likely appear red on election night, but as mail-in ballots are processed, Democrats are likely to see gains, according to CNN. Arizona, on the other hand, may experience the opposite phenomenon because the Grand Canyon State’s election officials process mail-in ballots as soon as they’re received.

Some officials fear that the delayed counts and potentially misleading early results will lead to misguided claims of election fraud, according to the Washington Post. In 2020, former President Donald Trump and his supporters capitalized off of delays in vote counting in certain states to sow doubt in the legitimacy of the election. Now two years later, a majority of GOP nominees on the ballot in the midterms have either questioned or denied the results of the 2020 election.

“It’s going to take a few days [to tabulate the results],” acting Pennsylvania secretary of state Leigh M. Chapman said at a recent news conference, according to the Post. She added: “It doesn’t mean anything nefarious is happening.”

“When it comes to knowing the results, we should move away from talking about Election Day and think instead about election week,” said Nathan Gonzales, publisher of the nonpartisan newsletter Inside Elections, according to Reuters.

Results may take the longest to obtain in Alaska where a ranked-choice runoff election will occur on Nov. 23 if no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote on Election Day, according to Alaska Public Media.

Republicans are favored by a wide margin to win back the House, and they have a slight edge in reclaiming the Senate, according to projections from FiveThirtyEight.

This story was originally published November 8, 2022 at 10:29 AM with the headline "When will midterm election results be final? Depends on where you live, officials say."