Washington Republicans are primed for a post-Trump comeback. There’s just 1 catch | Opinion
More and more, the only thing propping up Democrats, nationally and even here in dark-blue Washington state, is Donald Trump and the MAGA-fication of the GOP.
When Trump finally exits from the scene, if the Republicans can moderate their image just a bit, the political balance could be greatly altered.
Washington Democrats can throw out all the statistics they want, but there is no denying that inflation and the violent crime rate have both gone up on the party’s watch.
My wife and I recently returned from a trip spent driving around parts of Pennsylvania, Maryland and Virginia. Food in stores and restaurants was cheaper, and when I gassed up our car after returning home it was jarring to pay a dollar more per gallon than we had spent back east. Necessities like food, housing and gas drive perception. Nationally, prices for the basics skyrocketed in 2022 and continue to rise.
The situation is even worse in Washington because gas costs 28% more than the national average, largely due to the new tax Democrats imposed on carbon emissions. At the same time, the violent crime rate in Seattle remains high, even though it is dropping in other parts of the country.
National polls show voters trust Republicans more than Democrats on the core issues of crime and immigration, as well as the economy. In other words? Democrats have left the door wide open for a Republican comeback.
Republicans, however, seem determined to squander the opportunity by stubbornly attaching itself to Donald Trump and his toxic, antidemocratic baggage.
The GOP is now the party of January 6th, staking extreme positions on abortion and other hot-button social issues, and Trumpist control of the party is absolute, even here in a state where Trump has never reached 40% of the vote.
At the recently concluded Republican state convention, the party endorsed the most extreme MAGA candidates, including overwhelmingly choosing Semi Bird over former Congressman Dave Reichert for Governor.
The state GOP also endorsed Sue Pedersen over former Congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler for Lands Commissioner and Jerrod Sessler for Congress over Republican incumbent Dan Newhouse.
In the very competitive 3rd congressional district, the party endorsed super MAGA candidate Joe Kent.
Even if Dave Reichert defeats Bird in our wide-open top-two primary and makes the November general election ballot, Democrats are already working to put the former King County Sheriff in the Trump box, casting him as extreme on abortion and other key social issues.
The top of the Republican ticket will once again be dramatically out of step with the voters of Washington state.
Beyond 2024
This year’s election is not likely to be kind to Washington state Republicans, but a case can be made that it’s Democrats who face a more difficult future.
Franklin Roosevelt created a dominant political coalition for the Democrats that included southern whites, intellectual liberals, unionized blue-collar workers and non-white voters. It lasted for decades. Today, however, Democrats have lost the South and white non-college educated voters, while the party’s once huge advantage among non-white voters is eroding.
Offsetting these losses, Democrats have gained strength among secular, college-educated, white suburbanites who abhor Trump and the Republican party’s stance on the environment, abortion and other social issues. But secular suburban moderates are fickle. Not long ago, they were voting Republican.
When Trump is no longer the big, orange face of the GOP, the party’s advantages on crime and the economy could flip many suburbs back to the right — if the party slightly softens its stance on abortion and stops talking about the 2020 election. (This is a very big “if,” admittedly, given how far right the Republican base has moved.)
Remember, before Trump, Republicans in Washington controlled enough suburban seats to have a one-vote majority in the state Senate and were within two seats of a majority in the state House.
Democrats cannot win majorities with just highly educated, urban liberals. Without blue-collar voters they must win big in the suburbs.
Today, suburban voters, particularly suburban women, can be counted on to vote for Democrats because they hate Trump and his party. But they also hate and fear crime. They don’t like paying higher taxes. And they don’t like paying 50 bucks to fill up their vehicle.
The cake is baked for 2024; state Democrats will win big. But the door is wide open for both parties in terms of the future.
Especially in Washington, the suburbs are the key.
Will either party be willing and able to craft a moderate cul-de-sac-friendly message?
Chris Vance is a former Republican state legislator, King County Council member and State Party Chairman. He left the GOP in 2017. Vance writes a monthly opinion column for The News Tribune.
This story was originally published April 24, 2024 at 5:00 AM.