It’s shoplifting, and it sucks. We need a sane conversation to fix it. | Opinion
We’ve all experienced the demoralizing effects of shoplifting in some way. Maybe you’ve witnessed brazen theft. Or you’ve had to get help from a clerk to pick out laundry detergent or a Lego set, possibly after wandering the store looking for high-value products moved to deter theft.
Worse, small businesses suffer from increased security costs when they feel like targets for thieves. And chains close outlets that were vital to their communities, like the Fred Meyer on South 72nd Street in Tacoma.
The state of Washington has tackled this problem from multiple angles, including a task force run by the attorney general, and a $1 million pilot program in three counties to counter retail theft in King, Snohomish and Spokane counties. But in early April, Gov. Bob Ferguson vetoed a $500,000, one-year extension of that pilot program.
Rep. Mari Leavitt, who represents University Place in the statehouse, urged Ferguson not to end the funding. The money wasn’t earmarked for Pierce County law enforcement agencies, but a statewide advocacy group says the program led to arrests of suspects in local thefts.
“It leaves our small businesses at risk and does nothing to help customers and workers in our communities feel safe,” Leavitt said in a statement about the veto.
I agree with her, and I don’t say that lightly. I came to this topic as a skeptic. No, I don’t think shoplifting is fine. But the conversation about “organized retail crime” is so overheated that it’s often very difficult to tell what’s true.
Trade groups have put forward eye-popping numbers about the scale of this problem, only for reporters to repeatedly debunk them. Additionally, a national organization advocating for government intervention has speculated wildly about retail theft rings funding the narcotics trade, gun smuggling and even terrorism.
So it’s only after a conversation with Leavitt and research into the state of the problem in Washington that I say this: I agree that the state should help law enforcement respond to retailer complaints about shoplifting. I also think the pilot program funding was probably well spent.
Here’s what’s true: some retail theft in Washington state is carried out in sprees by crime rings that intend to resell the goods, and some of the perpetrators are involved in other crimes. Charges in these cases describe things like illegal guns, opioid and methamphetamine possession, reckless driving while evading the police and a litany of prior arrests and convictions.
“I’m not talking about grandma stealing a loaf of bread to feed her grandson for the day,” Leavitt told me. “I’m talking about the high utilizers and the intense organized crime folks who are creating havoc in our communities.”
I wouldn’t describe the rings as sophisticated, international crime syndicates. I don’t think you can call a crime sophisticated when it involves stealing repeatedly on camera and using getaway cars associated with other crimes, for example.
But if we’re talking about catching people known to law enforcement, and who leave hours of video evidence of the thefts in the wake of their crime sprees, that seems like a pretty good use of police resources to me.
To get there, we need to avoid the pitfalls of exaggeration and fearmongering, which in my opinion have created a sort of frankenproblem: a moral panic about a real issue.
Big numbers and baseless claims
The circumstances around these crimes can be bleak. For example, a group of Washington women allegedly stole half a million dollars of clothing from Lululemon outlets in the Pacific Northwest, with the aim of selling them online.
Arresting officers said they found illegal firearms in the home of one suspect, who had prior felony convictions. Prosecutors also said the group involved an 11-year-old girl in their crimes. Finally, they said the suspects used a getaway car that police had already encountered when they arrested a suspect’s boyfriend for murder.
That’s bad enough. No exaggeration necessary.
But oh, has there been exaggeration. Leaving aside the baseless claims that retail theft funds go to terrorists, there’s the economic impact. In 2023, the National Retail Federation retracted its shocking estimate that organized retail crime accounted for more than $47 billion in losses in 2021. Crummy math has plagued multiple other estimates, which have also crumbled under closer inspection.
Then there’s the losses to Washington’s tax coffers. The Washington Retail Association says the state lost out on more than $603 million in tax revenue in 2021 due to stolen goods. Rep. Leavitt repeated the figure to me before I’d had a chance to check it out.
But it doesn’t pencil out for a number of reasons, not the least of which is that it’s 22% of the value of all stolen goods in the state that year, according to the source of those numbers, the Retail Industry Leaders Association. State sales taxes and business excise taxes can add up to about 7-8%, depending on the product.
In fact, the $603 million figure was supposed to represent both state and federal taxes lost from Washington retail theft. The state tax portion of that estimate was about $270 million, which is still unlikely in my opinion. You can’t assume every stolen item would have sold at full retail value. Also, many businesses plan for losses, meaning they stock more than they expect to sell.
I’m certain there are real tax losses here, and spending state money to crack down on these thefts could very well be cost-effective. Any numbers we use to make the argument should pass the smell test, though.
Focus on the problem we have proof of
We have well-documented retail crime rings. And there’s no doubt that retailers feel the pressure of theft, whether it’s carried out by an organized group or just someone with sticky fingers. Survey data from the National Retail Federation shows us that many business owners feel the problem is getting worse, or at least not getting better. They need solutions.
If the state doesn’t help local governments, law enforcement and courts with the problem, it could start to look like a retailer’s only allies are the folks who exaggerate the financial impact or call it a multinational criminal conspiracy.
The real situation is bad enough. So let’s keep working on a solution.
