10 best case, worst case scenarios for the 2019 NCAA Tournament

Ultimately, there will be only one winner in the NCAA Tournament. That’s not to say all the other teams are losers.

Success, at least for some schools, is more nuanced. It’s about a win in the first-round, or avoiding that humbling, blowout loss.

With that in mind, here’s a look at the best case, worst case scenarios for 10 schools — three in the Pac-12, all four No. 1 seeds and 3 top contenders — in the NCAA Tournament.

Pac-12 schools

Arizona State (22-10)

Best case: Arizona State was in this position last season, having to play in a First Four game (they lost to Syracuse, 60-56). For them, beating St. John’s on Wednesday (6:10 p.m. / truTV) would right that wrong. And if they could extend Maryland in the real first-round game, and not embarrass themselves? That would be pretty good.

Worst case: Banged-up Sun Devils guard Remy Martin, who has been reported as good to go for the matchup vs. St. John’s, is ineffective. The First Four game vs. the Johnnies is a replay of their Pac-12 semifinal loss to Oregon; a game they committed 14 turnovers and shot poorly in the first half. And everyone, coast-to-coast, continues to make bad jokes at the Pac-12’s expense.

Oregon (23-12)

Best case: Oregon keeps trending upward as they lock down a struggling Wisconsin offense and collect the first win for the Pac-12 in the NCAA Tournament. In the round of 32 they pull off an upset of No. 4 seed Kansas State and clinch a spot in the Sweet 16. Although they end up losing to Virginia in the South Regional semifinal, Peyton Pritchard and the Ducks are one of the tournament’s top stories. Finally, some good press about the Pac-12.

Worst case: Oregon gives it their best shot but falls short vs. Wisconsin thanks to a 23-point, 15-rebound effort from Wisconsin’s Ethan Happ. The Ducks’ loss further pushes the narrative about the Pac-12 being weak.

Washington (26-8)

Best case: The Huskies prove the doubters wrong and score a minor upset over Utah State, shaking off their offensive woes and playing dominant defense. In the second round vs. top-ranked North Carolina, the Huskies see their season end but they do provide the toughest test for North Carolina up until the Heels make the 2019 Final Four. This gets everyone talking about how Mike Hopkins and crew are really going to roll next season, and the loss to N.C. is the building block to an amazing run in the 2020 NCAA Tournament.

Worst case: The Huskies come up short vs. Utah State and continue to look like the gang that can’t shoot. Adding insult to injury would be they are the only Pac-12 team to not record a win in the tourney as both Arizona State and Oregon pull out wins.

No. 1 Seeds

Duke (29-5)

Best case: Not hard to imagine this: A healthy Zion Williamson helps the Blue Devils coast to another Final Four and their sixth national championship.

Worst case: Zion’s sprained knee has some lingering effects and the Blue Devils bench that provided little scoring is non-existed in the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. Talent alone pushes Duke to the Sweet 16 but they are stunned by a Virginia Tech team that upsets the Blue Devils for the second time.

Virginia (29-3)

Best case: From the first No. 1 seed to lose in the first round of NCAA Tournament to the last team standing. Virginia finally has its breakthrough on college basketball’s biggest stage. After blowing through the South Region the Cavaliers beat North Carolina in the national semifinal and Duke in the title game.

Worst case: It happens again; Virginia loses to another No. 16 seed. Actually, there might be an even worse scenario out there for Tony Bennett and crew. After smashing through the first two games, Virginia looks like they are a lock for the Final Four. While in control of the regional final matchup vs. Tennessee, Virginia goes cold from the field and coughs up a 10-point lead in the final 3:52 of the second half. Tennessee comes back and heads to the Final Four.

North Carolina (27-6)

Best case: Duke vs. North Carolina for the 2019 National Championship. In the biggest game of all, the Tar Heels take down Duke for the third time this season.

Worst case: Things go south quick for the Tar Heels as they are the first top seed to bow out by losing to No. 8 seed Utah State. To make matters worse, the Final Four has three ACC teams (Duke, Florida State, and Virginia) not named North Carolina.

Gonzaga (30-3)

Best case: Gonzaga exacts revenge for the 2017 national title game vs North Carolina and the 20-year odyssey from mid-major to national champion is complete.

Worst case: After beating Syracuse, Gonzaga runs into another ACC team. Last season, Florida State ended the Bulldogs season in the West Region. This season, Florida State ends Gonzaga’s run again.

Three contenders

Kentucky (27-6)

Best case: After tearing through the first games the Wildcats take on North Carolina, beat them, then beat Tennessee in the semifinals to set up a showdown with Duke. They take down Duke for the title and end any narrative of Kentucky being down.

Worst case: After barely surviving the first two games in the tournament, Kentucky runs into an Iowa State team they should have no issues with. However a pro-Iowa State crowd at Kansas City’s Sprint Center rattles Kentucky and the Wildcats lose.

Michigan State (28-6)

Best case: Michigan State guard Cassius Winston joins other MSU greats like Magic Johnson and Mateen Cleaves as players who had iconic runs to a national title. Winston averages a near double-double as Michigan State wins its third title.

Worst case: Another March letdown in the second round: The Spartans lose to fellow Big Ten member Minnesota. The loss by Michigan State stings even more as they have to watch the University of Michigan be crowned national champions just a few weeks later.

Tennessee (29-5)

Best case: Tennessee had a small but substantial argument that they deserved a No. 1 seed. The second-seeded Volunteers go out and then knock over everybody inthe way, capped with a title game victory over Duke to claim the school’s first national title in men’s basketball.

Worst case: Just moments after Virginia is upset by Ole Miss in the second round, the Tennessee Volunteers become the favorites in the South Region. That doesn’t last for long. In one of the stunning upsets of the tournament, the struggling Iowa Hawkeyes take out the Tennessee Volunteers. A Final Four berth there for the taking goes poof.

This story was originally published March 20, 2019 at 12:40 PM.