Gonzaga gets caught in weekend upset trap. What does it mean as Selection Sunday is weeks away?
What started Saturday morning in Waco, Texas moved west to San Diego, California and then finally landed in Provo, Utah to complete its mission in just a little over 12 hours.
No, it wasn’t the nation’s strangest flight pattern but the upset bug that saw three of the four projected No. 1 seeds in the upcoming NCAA men’s basketball tournament all go down to defeat.
Baylor and San Diego State dropped heart-breakers at home, Baylor losing to third-ranked Kansas and San Diego State getting stunned on their home floor to a UNLV team barely over .500. The night ended with Gonzaga finally facing its toughest in-conference test and losing on the road at BYU 91-78.
What does this all mean? We’re under three weeks from Selection Sunday and while it has been a season-long conundrum when it comes to the at-large fighting on the bubble, the top seed line sees its first significant shakeup before conference tournaments start.
Here’s what can be made of Saturday’s craziness.
Gonzaga still a No. 1 seed out west
If you’re Gonzaga, the 91-78 loss to BYU isn’t great, but San Diego State’s loss to UNLV lessens the blow somewhat. However, San Diego State’s loss coupled with Gonzaga’s increases the Aztecs chances to be paired with the Bulldogs in the West Region come NCAA Tournament time. It is very possible that Duke, Dayton, Louisville, Maryland or even Florida State could pass the Aztecs and take the No. 1 seed in the East Region.
That move likely would jettison SDSU to the west in Los Angeles. That means that if the top-seeded Bulldogs and second-seeded Aztecs met in the regional final, San Diego State would have a virtual home game as San Diego is just 121 miles away from Staples Center. Not so fun to be a top seed this year, is it?
Kansas in the driver seat for No. 1 overall seed
It’s not necessarily a critical hit that Gonzaga took a loss to BYU, but any chance to keep pace with Kansas is brushed aside. Now Kansas, the lone survivor of the top four ranked teams has a season split on Baylor and the all important metrics that help decide seeding look even better with the Kansas win.
Here’s the numbers according to Warren Nolan’s Nitty Gritty rankings. While Kansas leads in most categories, Gonzaga has a better non-conference record (14-1) than the Jayhawks (10-2). The drawback is a non-conference schedule ranking of 266. Where is Kansas? They’re at the top spot. Gonzaga’s pursuit of Kansas may need a few more Jayhawk L’s along the way.
Top four seeds should stay the same
For all of the chicanery that took place Saturday and has taken place over the season with multiple teams occupying the top spot in the polls, nothing should change in a few weeks. Gonzaga, Kansas, Baylor and San Diego State should be your four No. 1 seeds come Selection Sunday.
Teams on the No. 2 line or close to the top-seed convo like Duke, Dayton, Florida State, Maryland and Louisville have either lacked consistency or have much more difficult paths in front of them. Gonzaga and San Diego State each win their conference tournaments, and a third Baylor-Kansas showdown will see the winner be the top-overall seed on Selection Sunday. There’s your four No. 1 seeds, making this past weekend a speed bump.
Just under three weeks away and the madness that comes in March is starting to reach a boil in late February.
This story was originally published February 24, 2020 at 6:00 AM.
